MANIFOLD
How many non-immigrant visas will the U.S. Issue in FY 2025
7
Ṁ1kṀ7.8k
resolved Mar 14
Resolved
10,000,000 - 11,999,999
100%88%
10,000,000 - 11,999,999
0.9%
Below 4,000,000
0.9%
4,000,000 - 5,999,999
1.0%
6,000,000 - 7,999,999
7%
8,000,000 - 9,999,999
1.5%
12,000,000 - 13,999,999
1.0%
14,000,000+

According to Travel.State.Gov, how many Non-immigrant Visas will be issued in Fiscal Year 2025?

Background

Non-immigrant visas are temporary U.S. visas issued to foreign nationals seeking to enter the United States for specific purposes such as tourism, business, work, or study. The U.S. Department of State, through its Bureau of Consular Affairs, issues these visas and publishes data on Travel.State.Gov.

Non-immigrant visa categories include:

  • B-1/B-2 (tourism/business)

  • F-1 (students)

  • H-1B (specialty occupations)

  • H-2A/H-2B (agricultural/non-agricultural workers)

  • J-1 (exchange visitors)

  • L-1 (intracompany transferees)

  • And many others

For FY 2025 (October 1, 2024 - September 30, 2025), some specific visa allocations have been announced:

  • H-1B: 65,000 regular cap plus 20,000 for advanced degree holders

  • H-2B: 66,000 statutory cap plus an additional 64,716 supplemental visas, totaling 130,716

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the official number of non-immigrant visas issued in FY 2025 as reported by the U.S. Department of State on Travel.State.Gov. The final number will be determined after the fiscal year ends (after September 30, 2025) when the Department of State publishes its annual Report of the Visa Office or equivalent statistical data.

If the Department of State changes its reporting methodology or combines categories differently than in previous years, the resolution will use the most comparable total figure for all non-immigrant visa categories combined.

  • Update 2026-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator intends to resolve early without waiting for the final month of FY 2025 data, noting it is very unlikely the total will exceed 12,000,000 non-immigrant visas.

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missing the last month, but very, very unlikely to make it over 12,000,000, and I don't want to wait any longer and very few people traded in this.

@TonyBaloney extend since it isn't released yet?

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