The Keynesian Beauty Contest is a game theory experiment where a group of players are asked to guess a number between 0 and 100. The winner of the contest is the player(s) who guess closest to half the average of all the guesses.
This is an attempt to perform this experiment on Manifold. At close I will resolve the market to the option that is closest to half the rounded average of the probability weighted value of the options.
For instance if there are only two options, 25 with 25% chance and 50 with 75% chance I would resolve to (0.25*25+0.75*50)/2=21.88~=22. Since 25 is closest to 22, the market would resolve to 25.
I've added options for all the multiples of 10 to start with. If I've set this up right, you will be able to add your own answers. Keep these guidelines in mind when adding additional options (or your option will not be included in the experiment):
The option must be an integer between 0 and 100, inclusive.The option must be written in digit form (to avoid duplicates).
Should it not be possible to add options, please request the option you want added in the comments, and I'll add it.
As we have reached the limit of how many options can be added, no further options will be added. Every option except 92 and 93 is available.
Fine print
Percentages will be read visually from the market page.
Should invalid options be added, the resulting average will be divided by the sum of probabilities of valid options, to ensure consistent values.
For the resolution of this market "Other" will always be considered an invalid option. The only reason to bet yes on "Other" would be to speculate on options added in the future.
Each day starting Sep 9th I will add the option which would currently win, if it is not yet part of the options.
In case of discrepancies between the textual description and the spreadsheet calculation, the spreadsheet will decide.
Here is a screenshot of a spreadsheet with formulas, showing how the final value will be calculated:
Similar markets
References
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ4,204 | |
| 2 | Ṁ2,004 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,587 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,180 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1,094 |