Is a solution to the AGI alignment problem possible by 2100?
52
Dec 31
Don't know / care. Show me the answers.
Yes
No

This is a poll to determine what Manifold thinks the answer to the question in the title is.

Definitions for this question:

AGI: An artificial intelligent agent that is significantly better at acting in environments / decision making than humans in a broad set of domains.

Alignment problem: getting the former to act in alignment with the goals of a group of humans (hopefully humanity as a whole).

By 2100 is meant to limit resource input (no infinite time span brute forcing), but it isn't meant to be an exact cutoff.

It is in part inspired by this market: https://manifold.markets/Joshua/is-risk-of-extinction-from-ai-1-in?r=VG9ieTk2

Is risk of extinction from AI >1% in the next century / Should we be spending >1% of our resources to prevent this?
Many forecasts on this site estimate a >1% risk of human extinction in the next century from artificial superintelligence. If that's true, it seems to me we should be dedicating far more resources to preventing this! At least 1%, if the risk of all of us dying is greater than 1%. But what does Manifold think? This isn't about how to spend money on preventing AI Doom, it's about how much in your best case scenario. Just imagine we're doing all the things that you think should be done, every nation is working together, and the funding is coming from wherever you think is best. The spending can be any mix of public and private you think is best. To give a simple sense of scope, 1% of the US government's budget would be about 60 billion dollars a year being spent on the problem: [image]

Feel free to argue for or against in the comments. I may make and link derivative markets later.

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We need more time to solve the deep philosophical problems linked to AGI alignment.

Is there a sequence of actions available to us that would solve alignment? I think so.

Will we find out in time what this sequence of actions is? I dunno.

I guess this would require humans (possibly globally) to solve the problem of deciding what alignment should look like in the first place...

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