I'll extend the close date until either the official human world record is under two hours (YES) or a humanoid robot runs under two hours in similar race conditions (NO).
1,000If we model new human marathon WRs as a Poisson process, and we assume that the next human marathon winner is definitely breaking the 2:00hr barrier (since the last one was 2:00:35), then I'd estimate it'll take around 2.5 years until the next human marathon WR, since there were around 10 new records in the past 25 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_record_progression
As of today, the winning robot time was 2:40 in a half marathon, so the robots have a much further way to go:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/19/asia/china-first-humanoid-robot-half-marathon-intl-hnk/index.html
But I also expect them to also improve much faster, so I genuinely think this is close to a tossup.