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@TimothyJohnson5c16 resolve no

Shit I lost this:

https://www.irozhlas.cz/sport/ostatni-sporty/beh-londynsky-maraton-sawe-svetovy-rekord-assefaova_2604261310_lbk

Sometimes I am going for the long run without underwear and am dropping the logs while I jog. It is the human nature to bring such innovations to the forefront and technology cannot keep up with it!!!

@CryptoNeoLiberalist Um... thank you for this information?

If we model new human marathon WRs as a Poisson process, and we assume that the next human marathon winner is definitely breaking the 2:00hr barrier (since the last one was 2:00:35), then I'd estimate it'll take around 2.5 years until the next human marathon WR, since there were around 10 new records in the past 25 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_record_progression

@spiderduckpig We can arb with https://manifold.markets/strutheo/in-what-year-will-a-bipedal-robot-b

@spiderduckpig I believe Kelvin Kiptum was a significant outlier, so with his unfortunate passing I would guess that it takes longer.

As of today, the winning robot time was 2:40 in a half marathon, so the robots have a much further way to go:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/19/asia/china-first-humanoid-robot-half-marathon-intl-hnk/index.html

But I also expect them to also improve much faster, so I genuinely think this is close to a tossup.