Which of these Elon's promises will be true? (Q125 financial results)
10
100Ṁ263
2026
16%
>1m of autonomous robotaxis in second half of '26
10%
>90% robotaxis marketshare in '26
11%
unsupervised full self-driving in consumer vehicles before '26

Tesla just had the Q125 financial results and Electric is skeptical about the promises.

https://electrek.co/2025/04/22/here-are-all-crazy-claims-elon-musk-made-tesla-self-driving-today/

Which will turn true?

  • Update 2025-04-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for Autonomous Ride-Sharing Service Launch:

    • Launch Requirement: The service must be launched and have at least one paying customer.

    • Driver Requirement: There must be no in-car driver; the service should rely on Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology.

    • Teleoperation Clause: The service can have teleoperator intervention, but if it is using teleoperation more than 90% of the time (i.e., using FSD less than 10% of the time), it will be resolved as a No.

    • Ambiguity Clause: If the service appears autonomous but later is shown not to be autonomous at all, the resolution may be updated based on new information.

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