Tesla just had the Q125 financial results and Electric is skeptical about the promises.
https://electrek.co/2025/04/22/here-are-all-crazy-claims-elon-musk-made-tesla-self-driving-today/
Which will turn true?
Update 2025-04-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for Autonomous Ride-Sharing Service Launch:
Launch Requirement: The service must be launched and have at least one paying customer.
Driver Requirement: There must be no in-car driver; the service should rely on Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology.
Teleoperation Clause: The service can have teleoperator intervention, but if it is using teleoperation more than 90% of the time (i.e., using FSD less than 10% of the time), it will be resolved as a No.
Ambiguity Clause: If the service appears autonomous but later is shown not to be autonomous at all, the resolution may be updated based on new information.
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I have decided to resolve
Paid autonomous ride-sharing service launch in Austin in June '25 --> YES 85%
Because of the following reasons:
Launch correctly scheduled on time
No driver
Safety monitor in the passengers seat (hence not 100% YES but only 85%)
On a side note, I think the resolution mostly abides to the YES criteria because the robotaxis is indeed mostly autonomous. (We don't have clear data but it appears from videos indeed it's over 90% driving itself)
It would be nice to set some specific bar for the "autonomous ride-sharing service launch", e.g. will you rely on the company claiming it did launch it? Or will there be some (possibly soft) minimal criteria - like if it services a few fixed routes, will it count? If it turns out they have something like 2 teleoperators for every 3 vehicles, will it count?
@AIBear my bar is really low for the first one: if they launch a ride-sharing service and if at least one customer pays for it, I'll resolve yes. There should be no no in-car driver and it should be based on fsd - regardless on whether teleoperators intervene. If it's fully teleoperated (meaning that it's not using fsd more than 90% of the time), I'll resolve no. If it appears to be autonomous but turns out it was not at all, I may change the resolution according to the news
@SimoneRomeo What are your thoughts on the "safety monitor" in the car? To me it appears to go a bit midway through your resolution criteria: there is a person in the car and the system relies on it (so a reason to resolve NO), but it seems the car is driven most of the time by FSD (so a reason to resolve YES)