Which of these Elon's promises will be true? (Q125 financial results)
8
100Ṁ227
2026
8%
Paid autonomous ride-sharing service launch in Austin in June '25
19%
>1m of autonomous robotaxis in second half of '26
10%
>90% robotaxis marketshare in '26
11%
unsupervised full self-driving in consumer vehicles before '26

Tesla just had the Q125 financial results and Electric is skeptical about the promises.

https://electrek.co/2025/04/22/here-are-all-crazy-claims-elon-musk-made-tesla-self-driving-today/

Which will turn true?

  • Update 2025-04-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for Autonomous Ride-Sharing Service Launch:

    • Launch Requirement: The service must be launched and have at least one paying customer.

    • Driver Requirement: There must be no in-car driver; the service should rely on Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology.

    • Teleoperation Clause: The service can have teleoperator intervention, but if it is using teleoperation more than 90% of the time (i.e., using FSD less than 10% of the time), it will be resolved as a No.

    • Ambiguity Clause: If the service appears autonomous but later is shown not to be autonomous at all, the resolution may be updated based on new information.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

It would be nice to set some specific bar for the "autonomous ride-sharing service launch", e.g. will you rely on the company claiming it did launch it? Or will there be some (possibly soft) minimal criteria - like if it services a few fixed routes, will it count? If it turns out they have something like 2 teleoperators for every 3 vehicles, will it count?

@AIBear my bar is really low for the first one: if they launch a ride-sharing service and if at least one customer pays for it, I'll resolve yes. There should be no no in-car driver and it should be based on fsd - regardless on whether teleoperators intervene. If it's fully teleoperated (meaning that it's not using fsd more than 90% of the time), I'll resolve no. If it appears to be autonomous but turns out it was not at all, I may change the resolution according to the news

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules