"Holy shit!" -> my reaction to deepseek r1. Will I feel the same about any AI developments in the next 5 months?

1kṀ3461

Jun 27

49%

chance

ALL

I started playing with deepseek and I'm feeling a "holy shit" moment for the first time since image uploading was added to 4o. Will I experience another "Holy shit!" Moment in the next 5 months? This market is subjective so I will not bet on it.

Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - **'Holy shit!' moments include any significant AI developments, both positive and negative, such as major advancements or significant setbacks (e.g., a major AI company experiencing a sudden collapse). (AI summary of creator comment)

OpenAI

AI Impacts

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?

4% chance

When will DeepSeek release R2?

Will xAI be ahead of DeepSeek on June 30

65% chance

will DeepSeek become a closed AI lab by EOY?

37% chance

When will Anthropic release a Deep Research tool?

When will Deepseek R2 be released?

6/7/25

Will DeepSeek R2 be open source?

84% chance

Will I believe in 1 year that DeepSeek R1 was substantially trained via distillation of a US model?

64% chance

When will DeepSeek release V4?

When will Deepseek V4 be released?

Sort by:

A lot of new things are allegedly coming out soon. Hopefully by the time I wake up Sam will have announced today's new 'thing'

@TimothyBandors seems like a regularly planned stepping stone forward. Nothing excited me. Maybe tomorrow.

https://x.com/cocktailpeanut/status/1906983829035974890

Another image gen thing that has me feeling feelings but not quiet a shocking "holy shit" moment

bought Ṁ25 NO

@osmarks Three months to go, lol

bought Ṁ500 YES

@TimothyBandors What do you think about GPT-4o image-gen?

@CDBiddulph Not really a "holy shit" just a "that's kinda cool"

@CDBiddulph okay, actually, this just now had me close to feeling "holy shit"
Not resolving yes though, as I didn't really have the same "holy shit" as when I first saw Deepseek

@TimothyBandors I’m somewhat confident there’s an intermediate LLM stage under the hood here. Not that that’s cheating persay but it’s not as impressive as a generative image model displaying this behavior alone.

bought Ṁ50 YES

https://www.sesame.com/research/crossing_the_uncanny_valley_of_voice#demo

Grok 3 doesn't have me feeling any strong reactions. Maybe next month.

Do yall really expect o3 to be so much better than o1? I didn't feel a "Holy Shit!" From 4o to o1

bought Ṁ20 YES

I'm pretty confident it won't take 5 months.

Does this include stuff other than positive reactions to advancements? E.g. a major AI company suddenly undergoes an ftx style crash and burn?

@TheAllMemeingEye If I wake up and OpenAI is FTX'd I may go "holy shit!"

@TimothyBandors If it's anthropic- I would probably not have a strong reaction

@TimothyBandors thanks for clarifying 👍

@TheAllMemeingEye
>bets 5 mana
lol

@TimothyBandors I only bet large amounts when I have high certainty, that's how I got a profit graph that's more or less smooth positive growth, you get the same trader bonus regardless of how much I bet

@TheAllMemeingEye I just thought it was funny lol

bought Ṁ30 YES

I think you might say that about o3-pro

Reasons for my Holy Shit! To deepseek:

-unexpected new player in the race

-open source

-40x cheaper api

-Even if they are lying about total compute used, there's not enough h100s in the world for them to by lying by much

@TimothyBandors would you feel holy shit for an ai model that is really smart? like better than the best humans at competitive programming for example