
I started playing with deepseek and I'm feeling a "holy shit" moment for the first time since image uploading was added to 4o. Will I experience another "Holy shit!" Moment in the next 5 months? This market is subjective so I will not bet on it.
Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - **'Holy shit!' moments include any significant AI developments, both positive and negative, such as major advancements or significant setbacks (e.g., a major AI company experiencing a sudden collapse). (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator has indicated that Codex, in the context discussed, is considered 'neat but nothing too special' and therefore would not meet their personal threshold for a 'Holy shit!' moment.
Update 2025-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Veo 3, while "giving feels" to the creator, does not meet their arbitrary threshold for a "holy shit!" moment.
Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator has indicated that deepseek r10528 is considered 'meh, nothing surprising' and therefore would not meet their personal threshold for a 'Holy shit!' moment.
Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - In response to a question about Meta's recent buyouts, the creator has clarified their threshold for a "Holy shit!" moment regarding corporate events:
A hypothetical merger between Meta and Anthropic might qualify.
The events seen so far are considered merely an "eyebrow raiser" and do not qualify.
Update 2025-06-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - In response to a question about the release of Gemma, the creator has indicated that while it 'Seems cool,' it is 'nothing that makes me shocked' and therefore does not meet their personal threshold for a 'Holy shit!' moment.
Update 2025-06-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated they will resolve the market on the day following their comment, after a final review of any recent developments. Please see the linked comment for their thoughts on the market's current state.
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As much as I wanted a twist ending, nothing makes me feel Holy Shit!
Bet on my reaction for the next five months:
https://manifold.markets/Bandors/holy-shit-my-reaction-to-deepseek-r-QuO8IsdcPO
@jim I'll make a new market tomorrow after I resolve this one. I have not looked too closely at recent developments. IMHO this market being at 1% seems... low? I might totally get shocked by something tomorrow morning! Anyways, I'm off to sleep
@dionisos Yes it's cool but it just seems like another step forward instead of a big leap that shocks me
wdyt of Gemma? Just released 3n yesterday, which comes close to R1
Not impressive compared to huge models, but holy shit, compressing the sum of human knowledge into a 2gb gguf is absolutely nuts. Could that be a holy shot for you?
@CarthagoDelendaEstNtCOc if meta merged with anthropic, that might be a hollyshit, but from the events I've seen so far, it's merely an eyebrow raiser
@TimothyBandors you have a high bar! but switching to YES because a lot can happen in 5 months and we're in interesting times
@TimothyBandors seems like a regularly planned stepping stone forward. Nothing excited me. Maybe tomorrow.
https://x.com/cocktailpeanut/status/1906983829035974890
Another image gen thing that has me feeling feelings but not quiet a shocking "holy shit" moment