"Holy shit!" -> my reaction to deepseek r1. Will I feel the same about any AI developments in the next 5 months?

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resolved Jun 28

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I started playing with deepseek and I'm feeling a "holy shit" moment for the first time since image uploading was added to 4o. Will I experience another "Holy shit!" Moment in the next 5 months? This market is subjective so I will not bet on it.

Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - **'Holy shit!' moments include any significant AI developments, both positive and negative, such as major advancements or significant setbacks (e.g., a major AI company experiencing a sudden collapse). (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator has indicated that Codex, in the context discussed, is considered 'neat but nothing too special' and therefore would not meet their personal threshold for a 'Holy shit!' moment.

Update 2025-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Veo 3, while "giving feels" to the creator, does not meet their arbitrary threshold for a "holy shit!" moment.

Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator has indicated that deepseek r10528 is considered 'meh, nothing surprising' and therefore would not meet their personal threshold for a 'Holy shit!' moment.

Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - In response to a question about Meta's recent buyouts, the creator has clarified their threshold for a "Holy shit!" moment regarding corporate events:
- A hypothetical merger between Meta and Anthropic might qualify.
- The events seen so far are considered merely an "eyebrow raiser" and do not qualify.

Update 2025-06-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - In response to a question about the release of Gemma, the creator has indicated that while it 'Seems cool,' it is 'nothing that makes me shocked' and therefore does not meet their personal threshold for a 'Holy shit!' moment.

Update 2025-06-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated they will resolve the market on the day following their comment, after a final review of any recent developments. Please see the linked comment for their thoughts on the market's current state.

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As much as I wanted a twist ending, nothing makes me feel Holy Shit!
Bet on my reaction for the next five months:
https://manifold.markets/Bandors/holy-shit-my-reaction-to-deepseek-r-QuO8IsdcPO

Maybe keep making these markets

@jim I'll make a new market tomorrow after I resolve this one. I have not looked too closely at recent developments. IMHO this market being at 1% seems... low? I might totally get shocked by something tomorrow morning! Anyways, I'm off to sleep

Yes I think 1% was too low, it was still correct but I really expect more than 1% of market like this to resolve yes.

I'm going to sleep. When I wake up, I'll browse around looking at the landscape to see if I missed anything truly shocking. Spring 2025 was a boring season for AI it seems.

@Bandors https://ai.meta.com/blog/v-jepa-2-world-model-benchmarks/

Did you look at it ? What do you think of if ?

I thought the zero-shot robot planning in new environments was quite impressive, particularly for a 1.4B parameters AI

@dionisos Yes it's cool but it just seems like another step forward instead of a big leap that shocks me

wdyt of Gemma? Just released 3n yesterday, which comes close to R1

Not impressive compared to huge models, but holy shit, compressing the sum of human knowledge into a 2gb gguf is absolutely nuts. Could that be a holy shot for you?

@KJW_01294 Seems cool, but nothing that makes me shocked.

Less than a day to go. Open to pitches for anything I may have missed. Seems like it's been a slow few months.

bought Ṁ25 YES

What do you think about the new midjourney?

@CarthagoDelendaEstNtCOc also meta's recent buyouts

@CarthagoDelendaEstNtCOc if meta merged with anthropic, that might be a hollyshit, but from the events I've seen so far, it's merely an eyebrow raiser

Is your reaction to deepseek r10528 more of a "holy shit," "holy moly," "hold the fort," or "meh"

@spiderduckpig meh, nothing surprising.

Veo 3 is giving me feels but not meeting my arbitrary threshold for "holy shit!"

bought Ṁ50 YES

@TimothyBandors you have a high bar! but switching to YES because a lot can happen in 5 months and we're in interesting times

bought Ṁ5 YES

Codex?

@jim It's neat but nothing too special

A lot of new things are allegedly coming out soon. Hopefully by the time I wake up Sam will have announced today's new 'thing'

@TimothyBandors seems like a regularly planned stepping stone forward. Nothing excited me. Maybe tomorrow.

https://x.com/cocktailpeanut/status/1906983829035974890

Another image gen thing that has me feeling feelings but not quiet a shocking "holy shit" moment