"Holy shit!" -> my reaction to deepseek r1. Will I feel the same about any AI developments in the next 5 months?

1kṀ762

resolved Aug 6

Resolved

YES

ALL

From January market:
I started playing with deepseek and I'm feeling a "holy shit" moment for the first time since image uploading was added to 4o. Will I experience another "Holy shit!" Moment in the next 5 months? This market is subjective so I will not bet on it.

Spring was a boring season for AI developments. Will the next five months have any AI moment that makes me feel "Holy shit!"

Prior market:
https://manifold.markets/Bandors/holy-shit-my-reaction-to-deepseek-r

"Holy shit!" -> my reaction to deepseek r1. Will I feel the same about any AI developments in the next 5 months?

1.4% chance. I started playing with deepseek and I'm feeling a "holy shit" moment for the first time since image uploading was added to 4o. Will I experience another "Holy shit!" Moment in the next 5 months? This market is subjective so I will not bet on it. Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - **'Holy shit!' moments include any significant AI developments, both positive and negative, such as major advancements or significant setbacks (e.g., a major AI company experiencing a sudden collapse). (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator has indicated that Codex, in the context discussed, is considered 'neat but nothing too special' and therefore would not meet their personal threshold for a 'Holy shit!' moment. Update 2025-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Veo 3, while "giving feels" to the creator, does not meet their arbitrary threshold for a "holy shit!" moment. Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator has indicated that deepseek r10528 is considered 'meh, nothing surprising' and therefore would not meet their personal threshold for a 'Holy shit!' moment. Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - In response to a question about Meta's recent buyouts, the creator has clarified their threshold for a "Holy shit!" moment regarding corporate events: A hypothetical merger between Meta and Anthropic might qualify. The events seen so far are considered merely an "eyebrow raiser" and do not qualify. Update 2025-06-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - In response to a question about the release of Gemma, the creator has indicated that while it 'Seems cool,' it is 'nothing that makes me shocked' and therefore does not meet their personal threshold for a 'Holy shit!' moment. Update 2025-06-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated they will resolve the market on the day following their comment, after a final review of any recent developments. Please see the linked comment for their thoughts on the market's current state.

Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the "Holy shit!" reaction can be triggered by negative AI developments, such as those that are surprisingly dangerous, harmful, or deceptive.

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Genie 3 got me to finally go "Holy shit!"

This tweet brought me over the edge:

https://x.com/jkbr_ai/status/1953154961988305384

@Bandors if it's not too inconvenient, could you elaborate a little bit on what the holy shit breakthrough was here? In the linked video it seems to stop doing anything on the small screen besides zooming in once the prompt video ends and actual video generation begins, right?