In December 2022, then-representative-elect George Santos was discovered to have fabricated much of his biography. Will any member of the US Congress be found to have done similarly by November 2028?

This question only applies to those who held office in the US House or Senate at any point between October 2025 until November 2028.

This question resolves "YES" if any such congressperson is discovered (at any point during those 37 months; not limited to while they held office) to have fabricated a portion of their life story including at least three of the following:

• Ancestry or ethnic background

• Religious background

• Education

• Prior imprisonment

• Birthplace or childhood residence

• Age

• Familial relations, specifically falsely stating that someone is or is not related to them, or lying about a family member (first- or second-degree relative, or current or former spouse) regarding at least one of the attributes in this list

• Citizenship

• Employment or career history (in very broad strokes)

• Whether they did military service

• Whether they previously held a particular political office

Claims about their life story will only be counted if they were stated at least mostly consistently over a span of time. Singular claims which are not repeated are not counted. Plausibly accidental mistakes (as judged by the media at large) are also not counted.

Statements must have been made at some point since the beginning of 2024, and publicly reported as false at some point between October 19 2025 and November 1 2028.

I will not bet on this market.

(For those who want to avoid the AI, I've started a forum post as an alternative comments section for this market.)