Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2024?
Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2024?
57
1.1kṀ14k
resolved Jan 25
Resolved
NO

Resolves yes if there is a plant delivering electricity at any point during that year.

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predictedNO 1y

The CSU would like to keep the Bavarian plant Isar 2 under federal jurisdiction: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bavaria-asks-nuclear-power-comeback-under-own-responsibility-after-fresh-exit-2023-04-15/

I doubt they can pull it off.

2y

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2y

Without new information, this seems too high. Also, the current coalition (which contains the very anti-nuclear Greens) will still be in power by then. There could be a world in which Germany installs small modular reactors without calling them nuclear, but unlikely for these to be active by 2024.

predictedNO 2y

Why is this trending so much higher than https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-a-major-nuclear-power-plant-in ?

2y

@TANSTAAFL Well, this one is later (and over a longer period), so enough time to refuel and restart a reactor. That might be it.

predictedNO 2y

@TimP That's a possibility. I wonder if people are putting a higher probability on a political change than I do. The Greens seem dedicated to this regardless of the hard consequences.

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