Will the current monkeypox outbreak lead to >5 infections in wild animals?
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resolved Nov 13
Resolved
NO
Regarding the possibility of monkeypox gaining a reservoir outside of Africa. Will >5 wild animals become infected outside of Africa, before 2024 or the end of the current monkeypox outbreak (which ever happens sooner)? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak #World #Economics #Ecology #ID #infectiousdisease #pox #monkeypox
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It looks like the outbreak is ended, so I am resolving No. If you think this was in error, provide the proof of 6 or more infections that meet the criteria and we can re-resolve it.

bought Ṁ250 of NO

@TimP I think this can resolve No. The 2022-2023 outbreak is over.

In May 2023, the World Health Organization declared an end to the global health emergency that was declared in response to the worldwide outbreak of the monkeypox virus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak

I was unable to find any additional cases, and I think one of the reported cases in a pet is now unclear.

No pets or other animals were confirmed to have mpox during the 2022-2023 global mpox outbreak.

...

One published report suggests dogs may be susceptible to mpox virus. However, follow-up investigations did not establish disease in the reported animal. Further research and surveillance are needed to determine whether dogs are susceptible.

https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/veterinarian/mpox-in-animals.html

How is this going to resolve? Surely more than 5 wild animals have already been infected, but the vast majority of them will go unnoticed by humans.

@IsaacKing I would expect a biger outbrake to be noticed. Of course if it isn't noticed there isn't much we can do. But I guess I could keep it open longer for evidence to come in.

Why are you so certain it already happened? So far indications seem to be against that.

What indications are against it? There have been around 70,000 confirmed cases of Monkeypox thus far. If 0.01% of those cases transferred to a wild animal, that's more than 5 infected already. And that's not even counting the possibility of those animals spreading it to others.

@IsaacKing Well, so far I found two cases in a pet. So it doesn't seem to spread very well.