Will Manifold allow users to set an initial probability on paid markets?

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resolved Jul 21

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Close date updated to 2022-08-22 6:59 am

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I like the simplicity of starting at 50%. These are also more interesting questions to bet on.

predictedYES

For some questions you don't find a good point where the probability is ~.5 , and when you have to trade on the market to correct the price, that is not simpler, I would say.

At least I hope so.

@TimP Hmmm, maybe... what are the main reasons you want it back rather than betting it to correct probability after creation?

predictedYES

@ManifoldMarkets That is more capital intensive. And you take a position so I think it requires more risk or management? Mainly it seems generally more elegant.

@ManifoldMarkets Because the current route requires market creators to bet to set the correct probability, and that is just amplifying the daily free markets theft.

Is there a downside to the market creator not setting the probability, and instead letting someone else bet it down who wants to do so?

(I also don’t really understand the math; would setting an initial probability like 25% before market creation change the distribution of liquidity in a beneficial/meaningful way compared to the result of someone betting it down to 25% after market creation?)

predictedYES

@Angela If you let someone else correct the price he takes money from the market maker (that is anyone providing liquidity), at least in expectation. (Not entirelly sure about the math. But the liquidity will certainly be lower than if the betting money had gone to providing liquidity directly instead.)

@ManifoldMarkets if you have to bet to correct the probability, free markets are not free anymore. Also one of the key argument during the public bet debate was that the UI has to reflect the API

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Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at non-50% probabilities in the UI? (by July 2025)

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