Will Manifold allow users to set an initial probability on paid markets?

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Ṁ100

resolved Jul 21

Resolved

NO

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Close date updated to 2022-08-22 6:59 am

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

I like the simplicity of starting at 50%. These are also more interesting questions to bet on.

predicted YES

For some questions you don't find a good point where the probability is ~.5 , and when you have to trade on the market to correct the price, that is not simpler, I would say.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

At least I hope so.

@TimP Hmmm, maybe... what are the main reasons you want it back rather than betting it to correct probability after creation?

predicted YES

@ManifoldMarkets That is more capital intensive. And you take a position so I think it requires more risk or management? Mainly it seems generally more elegant.

@ManifoldMarkets Because the current route requires market creators to bet to set the correct probability, and that is just amplifying the daily free markets theft.

Is there a downside to the market creator not setting the probability, and instead letting someone else bet it down who wants to do so?

(I also don’t really understand the math; would setting an initial probability like 25% before market creation change the distribution of liquidity in a beneficial/meaningful way compared to the result of someone betting it down to 25% after market creation?)

predicted YES

@Angela If you let someone else correct the price he takes money from the market maker (that is anyone providing liquidity), at least in expectation. (Not entirelly sure about the math. But the liquidity will certainly be lower than if the betting money had gone to providing liquidity directly instead.)

@ManifoldMarkets if you have to bet to correct the probability, free markets are not free anymore. Also one of the key argument during the public bet debate was that the UI has to reflect the API

Related questions

Will Manifold allow market creators to noticeably prohibit themselves from trading on their own markets?

Does Manifold approve the restrictions on the probability range on some markets ?

Will Manifold encourage or force users to resolve markets before deleting their account?

Before 2026, will Manifold innovate its way to a market correctly pricing a 1-in-100,000 random chance of Yes as 0.001%?

Will Manifold Markets introduce higher market creation cost for users with a large number of markets in 2024?

Will Manifold give users better options to hide unimportant markets?

Will Manifold significantly improve the reliability of extreme market probabilities before the end of 2024?

Will Manifold create functionality for market creators to pin key markets on their profile?

Related questions

Will Manifold allow market creators to noticeably prohibit themselves from trading on their own markets?

Will Manifold Markets introduce higher market creation cost for users with a large number of markets in 2024?

Does Manifold approve the restrictions on the probability range on some markets ?

Will Manifold give users better options to hide unimportant markets?

Will Manifold encourage or force users to resolve markets before deleting their account?

Will Manifold significantly improve the reliability of extreme market probabilities before the end of 2024?

Before 2026, will Manifold innovate its way to a market correctly pricing a 1-in-100,000 random chance of Yes as 0.001%?

Will Manifold create functionality for market creators to pin key markets on their profile?