How to create a multiple-choice market with customised initial probabilities? | Manifold

How to create a multiple-choice market with customised initial probabilities?

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Bounty goes to the first person to show me how to create a multiple-choice market with customized initial probabilities. Specifically, I want to create a market where all the initial probabilities are zero except for one special one which is 100 percent.

Currently I have to approximate this by creating the market and then trading on it to bid up the special one.

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I believe that is the only way to do it. I suppose you could make the market unlisted, and then list it after buying so no one interferes before then.

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Related questions

Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at non-50% probabilities in the UI? (by July 2025)

When will Manifold Markets allow users to partially resolve multiple choice markets

What is the best way to structure a market to capture probabilities conditional on unlikely events?

Roland Fryer [Harvard Economist] Multiple Choice markets (many topics, many market lengths)

Which probability option would you choose?

Make answers created during market creation on independent multi choice start with the minimum answer ante liquidity

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