Background

NASA's Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon and establish a sustainable lunar presence. The program includes plans for the Lunar Gateway, a space station in lunar orbit expected to be operational by the mid-2020s, which would serve as a staging point for lunar surface missions.

Currently, NASA has not announced specific plans or timelines for constructing a permanent moon base before 2036. The agency's focus is on initial crewed landings and establishing sustainable operations on the lunar surface.

In contrast, China and Russia have announced plans for their International Lunar Research Station, with construction scheduled to begin around 2026 and operations expected by 2036.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if, before January 1, 2036:

• NASA officially begins physical construction of permanent or semi-permanent structures on the lunar surface that are explicitly designated as a "base" or equivalent term (station, habitat, colony, etc.)

• The structures must be intended for human habitation beyond short-term missions

• Construction must move beyond the planning phase to actual assembly or deployment of components on the lunar surface

The market will resolve as NO if:

• NASA does not begin physical construction of a moon base by December 31, 2035

• NASA only conducts temporary missions without establishing permanent infrastructure

• Only robotic missions or preparatory site surveys occur without actual construction

For clarity, deployment of scientific instruments, rovers, or temporary shelters that are not part of a larger base construction plan would not qualify as starting to build a moon base.