Will there be a permanently inhabited Moon base by 2040?
Basic
24
3.6k
2040
23%
chance

To count as permanently inhabited, the base must meet the following conditions:

• It is continuously inhabited for at least a year. The period of continuous habitation must start before 2040, but it still counts even if it has not been a full year yet on Jan 1, 2040.

• There are no plans to leave the base uninhabited at any time within 10 years of the beginning of the period of continuous habitation.

If the base is somehow destroyed before 2040 or the plan to continuously inhabit it for at least 10 years doesn't work out, it still counts as long as it meets to two conditions.

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predicts YES

It is really very unclear to me what "permanently inhabited" means.

Presumably it doesn't mean permanently from when it is established until 2040. Therefore, in some cases you must be taking into account the planned future of the base when you make your resolution. How far into the future does this plan have to extend? If there is a plan for it to be permanently inhabited for 6 months how does it resolve? for two years? What if there no published plan? do you then wait to see if it will be inhabited for at least a certain length of time before resolving?

And what of another case, if it's inhabited from 2036 to 2038 for 521 consecutive days but is uninhabited in 2040 when this question closes? Would the question resolve YES after a certain number of consecutive days is reached?

@calderknight OK, I sold my position due to lack of resolution clarity

@calderknight Sorry, I didn't see the first comment when you posted it. I rewrote the description to have more specific criteria.

predicts YES

Are the conditions you list sufficient conditions?

@calderknight It also needs to be permanently inhabited, but other than that yes, any structure with sleeping quarters that stays on the Moon and is inhabited permanently would count.

predicts YES

@JosephNoonan How is permanently defined/determined?