Please note that I will add more people once they get confirmed. If you have any concerns or think that I missed someone, please tell me in the comments.

Background Donald Trump has announced potential cabinet members for his potential 2025 administration. These nominees represent a mix of former officials, political allies, and new faces. Several nominees have controversial backgrounds or limited experience in their designated roles, which could affect their longevity in the cabinet.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the first person from the provided list who is either:

1. Formally removed from their position

2. Resigns from their position

3. Has their nomination withdrawn before confirmation

The market will resolve N/A if:

• None of the listed individuals are removed/resign/withdrawn during Trump's term

• Trump's term ends with all listed members still in their positions

For resolution purposes:

• Acting secretaries who are later confirmed do not count as a removal

• Temporary absences (e.g., medical leave) do not count as removal

• If multiple individuals leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the person whose departure was officially announced first

Considerations

• Several nominees may face challenging Senate confirmation processes, particularly:

  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. due to his controversial vaccine stance

  • Pam Bondi due to her involvement in 2020 election challenges

  • Pete Hegseth due to limited defense policy experience

• Historical precedent shows that cabinet turnover in the Trump administration was higher than average, with multiple departures occurring through various means (firing, resignation, withdrawal)

• Some nominees hold positions that typically face more scrutiny and pressure (e.g., Attorney General, Defense Secretary, Homeland Security)

• Senate confirmation could be particularly challenging if Republicans hold a narrow majority or if Democrats control the Senate