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It looks like this has already happened. Will wait 2 more weeks for processing to finalize.

@Thomas42 2 weeks have passed since the first day exceeding last year's record.

If the ocean surface temperature stays above previous years for a few more months, that may be enough for a record around March. August seems less likely to me because it's usually been less hot, with 2023 as the exception.

@StevenK not sure how to read your comment, the question is if the record will be broken in any month up to and including august, is that in line with your understanding?

@Thomas42 Yes, that's in line with my understanding.

@StevenK (I bought NO because a record in August 2024 seems <50% likely, but then sold because of the possibility of a record in March/April 2024.)

@StevenK ah got it!

YES.

From the data from 1982 to 2023, I used the records for each August to predict the SST value for August 2024.

There is a 99.72% probability that August 2024 will exceed the record of 21.1℃ in August 2023.

Mean= 20.36452

Median=20.36

Standard Deviation= 0.265874

Z-score=(21.1-21.36452)/0.265874 = 2.77

Using the Standard Normal Cumulative Probability Table, I find that the corresponding probability is approximately 0.9972

Furthermore, it is said that El Niño is affected by the increase in SST, and SST continued to increase in the year of the occurrence and the following year during the past two El Niño. NASA has announced that El Niño occurred in October 2023. This also supports the prediction that SST will continue to rise in 2023 and 2024.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_monthly/

International Ocean Satellite Monitors How El Niño Is Shaping Up – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (nasa.gov)

@RuriIshikawa how did you predict this, some sort of autoregressive model?

betting on regression towards the mean