I saw this post on /r/SSC, and the diagram looks pretty dramatic. But I don't know much about it. Haven't seen people discussing it before, which I would've used to take as a sign that it is not so significant, but I don't know anymore.

Let's have a market on it. This market resolves YES if it matters, such as if:

• This is the beginning of runaway global warming

• This is the beginning of some non-runaway phase shift in global warming that is going to suddenly lead to a lot of damage

• Rationalists broadly acknowledge that this spike is uniquely important for other reasons

This market resolves NO if it doesn't matter, such as if:

• The spike disappears in future data

• The spike remains but turns out to be misleading/meaningless