Will Lula da Silva win the 2022 Brazil presidential election in the first round?
23
120Ṁ6052
resolved Oct 3
Resolved
NO

Brazilian presidential elections can have 2 rounds. A candidate wins in the first round if he receives more votes than all the others combined.

Resolves yes if Lula da Silva wins the election in the first round, scheduled for Oct 02, 2022.

Void if he doesn't run (death, court order, etc)

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predictedYES

Is there a resource that's providing this specific probability in realtime? This market is the closest thing I've got lol.

@Charlie Datafolha just called this race

predictedYES

@MP As in, they declared it'll go to a runoff?

@Charlie Yeap. Just 6.5% of the pools left

Raising the odds based on the results on foreign countries.

predictedNO

Dependendo do resultado de domingo eu vou para a Leaderboard ou posso abandonar o site, falido, rss

predictedYES

@ThiagoSantos Eu acabei diversificando por falta de liquidez aqui nas outras apostas onde apenas dizem que ele vai ser eleito.

predictedYES

@MP E vendi metade da minha posição do "não vai ter golpe" pois estou com cold feet após a nota do PL. Por um lado está me dando mais confiança nesse mercado aqui, por outro lado me deu menos confiança lá.

predictedYES

Ou eu ou o @thiago santos vamos quebrar a banca no domingo, haha

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