What Will Happen to Cabinet-Schoof (Dutch Politics) [ADD RESPONSES]
➕
Plus
19
Ṁ15k
2028
90%
Will Dick Schoof run another official race (running)
20%
130 km/h will be the permanent speed limit on at least 50 km of road
71%
130 km/h will be the permanent speed limit on at least one road (one 'traject')
72%
The cabines will see at least one Christmas
87%
Pieter Omztig will take a leave of more than 3 months
13%
Geert Wilders will do a long television interview
43%
Pieter Omztig will cry in front of a camera
91%
A Cabinet member will be photographed with a Zwarte Pieter in 2024
6%
Agema will resign due to her illness
25%
Dick Schoof will have a sport injury
96%
BBB won't solve the manure issue for farmers before 2025
5%
One or more cabinet members will give up there second passport
14%
The cabinet will fall before Christmas 2024
3%
PVV will become a party with members
21%
A message on X will be the downfall of Cabinet-Schoof
1.9%
Somebody gets hit in the House of Representatives
29%
Someone from the cabinet will literally fall
11%
Immigration will fall by at least 30% (as seen over a full year, compared to 2023)
13%
Immigration will fall by at least 20% (as seen over a full year, compared to 2023)
65%
Marjolein Faber will be replaced as minister of Immigration

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ250 Answer #pE6cZCP0dC YES

130 km/h will be the permanent speed limit on at least one road (one 'traject')

@MarnixVreugdenhil good one. Coin toss for me.

130 km/h will be the permanent speed limit on at least 50 km of road

Both directions are counted, since the responsible minister also counts both ways in his statements. His plans are to make 133 km of roads (counting both directions) permanently 130 km/h.

@traders who has suggestions for more options to add here?

I haven't seen any negative tweets by Wilders. Has anyone else? If not, I'd say we can resolve NO.

bought Ṁ846 Answer #qhkttvdqnt NO

@TheWabiSabi For clarity on this market. Omtzigt's leave of absence was announced on september 11: https://www.nu.nl/politiek/6327802/nsc-leider-omtzigt-doet-tijdelijk-stap-terug-om-gezondheidsredenen.html
Does that mean this market will resolve to YES if he is still on leave on october 11?
of if he takes a leave of absence longer than a month at a later date?

@Sqeedee yes if he is still at home on October 11th, stays unresolved otherwise and No at the end of this cabinet if he returns before October 11th.

@MarnixVreugdenhil on the same day I assume?

@TheWabiSabi let's say before the end of the first 'Algemene politieke beschouwingen'

@traders feel free to add options. I will send 50 mana per option you add to help ;) DM me after adding the option

bought Ṁ50 One or more cabinet ... NO

Schoof almost fell yesterday after he got hit by the door

[deleted]

If multiple news sources conclude that NSC decides to break with the cabinet and results in the fall of it.

Thank you. How about the "message on X will be the downfall" option, how will that be determined?

Only yes if there is a direct link between a personal message of someone of the cabinet on X which results in a crisis and than results in the fall of the cabinet.

Short of the tweet being "I'm dissolving the Netherlands and we'll all be Belgians now", I think that'll still be complicated to ascertain.

For example. "I think minister XYZ is a racist and should step up." kind of message.

Why would anyone in the cabinet write that? Or, if it is someone not in the cabinet writing that, why would it cause the government to fall?

Anything seems possible after this week, but you can bet NO and will check with everyone before resolving if it's not 100% clear.

That's too much uncertainty for me. A market needs to be unambiguous instead of depending on people with directly conflicting interests coming to an agreement.

You can add more certain options if you like

Immigration will fall by at least 30% (as seen over a full year, compared to 2023)

In 2023, 332 863 people migrated to the Netherlands. If during any year that Cabinet Schoof is governing, at most 233 004 people migrate to the Netherlands, this will resolve 'YES'.
https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws/2024/06/14/staat-van-migratie-2024-in-2023-stappen-gezet-naar-grip-op-migratie#:~:text=In%202023%20was%20er%20een,17%25%20minder%20dan%20in%202022.

Immigration will fall by at least 20% (as seen over a full year, compared to 2023)

In 2023, 332 863 people migrated to the Netherlands. If during any year that Cabinet Schoof is governing, at most 266 290 people migrate to the Netherlands, this will resolve 'YES'.
https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws/2024/06/14/staat-van-migratie-2024-in-2023-stappen-gezet-naar-grip-op-migratie#:~:text=In%202023%20was%20er%20een,17%25%20minder%20dan%20in%202022.

Clear!

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules