What Will Happen to Cabinet-Schoof (Dutch Politics) [ADD RESPONSES]
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19
Ṁ17k
2028
50%
The cabinet will fall before 1st of April 2025
39%
Pieter Omztig will step down
31%
PVV will create a TikTok account
50%
Schoof will run another Marathon
50%
Next Minister who leaves is from NSC
50%
Next 'Staatssecretaris' who leaves is also from NSC
69%
Geert Wilders visit Israel
20%
130 km/h will be the permanent speed limit on at least 50 km of road
71%
130 km/h will be the permanent speed limit on at least one road (one 'traject')
68%
The cabines will see at least one Christmas
13%
Geert Wilders will do a long television interview
43%
Pieter Omztig will cry in front of a camera
91%
A Cabinet member will be photographed with a Zwarte Pieter in 2024
6%
Agema will resign due to her illness
25%
Dick Schoof will have a sport injury
97%
BBB won't solve the manure issue for farmers before 2025
5%
One or more cabinet members will give up there second passport
19%
The Cabinet will fall before Christmas 2024
3%
PVV will become a party with members
21%
A message on X will be the downfall of Cabinet-Schoof

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@TheWabiSabi resolving this seems kind of premature? Omtzigt could still take a leave longer than 3 months? (Although I agree this leave was not longer than 3 months)

@EvdZ agree that this could be formulated better. If Omtzigt gets ill again I will unresolve this one, does that feel right?

bought Ṁ50 PVV will create a Ti... NO

@traders who has betting ideas to add?

bought Ṁ250 Answer #pE6cZCP0dC YES

130 km/h will be the permanent speed limit on at least one road (one 'traject')

@MarnixVreugdenhil good one. Coin toss for me.

130 km/h will be the permanent speed limit on at least 50 km of road

Both directions are counted, since the responsible minister also counts both ways in his statements. His plans are to make 133 km of roads (counting both directions) permanently 130 km/h.

@traders who has suggestions for more options to add here?

I haven't seen any negative tweets by Wilders. Has anyone else? If not, I'd say we can resolve NO.

bought Ṁ846 Answer #qhkttvdqnt NO

@TheWabiSabi For clarity on this market. Omtzigt's leave of absence was announced on september 11: https://www.nu.nl/politiek/6327802/nsc-leider-omtzigt-doet-tijdelijk-stap-terug-om-gezondheidsredenen.html
Does that mean this market will resolve to YES if he is still on leave on october 11?
of if he takes a leave of absence longer than a month at a later date?

@Sqeedee yes if he is still at home on October 11th, stays unresolved otherwise and No at the end of this cabinet if he returns before October 11th.

@MarnixVreugdenhil on the same day I assume?

@TheWabiSabi let's say before the end of the first 'Algemene politieke beschouwingen'

@traders feel free to add options. I will send 50 mana per option you add to help ;) DM me after adding the option

bought Ṁ50 One or more cabinet ... NO

Schoof almost fell yesterday after he got hit by the door

[deleted]

If multiple news sources conclude that NSC decides to break with the cabinet and results in the fall of it.

Thank you. How about the "message on X will be the downfall" option, how will that be determined?

Only yes if there is a direct link between a personal message of someone of the cabinet on X which results in a crisis and than results in the fall of the cabinet.

Short of the tweet being "I'm dissolving the Netherlands and we'll all be Belgians now", I think that'll still be complicated to ascertain.

For example. "I think minister XYZ is a racist and should step up." kind of message.

Why would anyone in the cabinet write that? Or, if it is someone not in the cabinet writing that, why would it cause the government to fall?

Anything seems possible after this week, but you can bet NO and will check with everyone before resolving if it's not 100% clear.

That's too much uncertainty for me. A market needs to be unambiguous instead of depending on people with directly conflicting interests coming to an agreement.

You can add more certain options if you like

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