This market predicts the timeframe in which the Dutch Cabinet Schoof will end its tenure, either through scheduled elections, dissolution, or replacement.
Resolution criteria: Market resolves based on the official date when the cabinet ceases to be in power.
References:
https://nltimes.nl/2024/09/13/support-dutch-coalition-holds-40-nearly-70-expect-cabinet-collapse
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%932024_Dutch_cabinet_formation
Update 2025-06-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on the date of dismissal of all remaining ministers of the current cabinet, as published in the Staatscourant (official gazette).
The cabinet becoming "demissionair" (caretaker) does not count as a resolution.
If dismissal and appointment of new ministers happen on separate days, the day of dismissal will be used.
A new election resulting in another cabinet, even if still led by Prime Minister Schoof, will count as the end of the current cabinet.
Update 2025-06-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will resolve based on the date of dismissal of all remaining ministers of the current cabinet, as published in the Staatscourant (official gazette).
The cabinet becoming "demissionair" (caretaker) does not count as a resolution.
A new election resulting in another cabinet, even if still led by Prime Minister Schoof, will count as the end of the current cabinet.
If dismissal and appointment of new ministers happen on separate days, the day of dismissal will be used.
Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The departure of a subset of ministers does not constitute a dissolution of the cabinet.
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The cabinet has neither been dissolved nor replaced and there have not been any elections, while it has become "demissionair", Dick Schoof is still prime minister and cabinet members remain in positions of power. I asked o3-pro the question with the market description, it agrees: https://pastebin.com/zwiAvvvE
Note that scheduled elections were part of the resolution criteria and options only were available until 2027, so yes, a new election with another prime minister Schoof would end the reign of the current cabinet Schoof.
Per the market description, this question will resolve on the day that all remaining ministers of this cabinet are dismissed and new ministers are appointed. This is published in the staatscourant. This generally happens on the same day, but should this somehow happen on separate days, and it affects the outcome of the question, then the day of dismissal will be used.
Note that I do not hold any shares in this market, nor will I trade on it.
@StephanHeijl how is the cabinet not 'dissolution'? PVV step out of the cabinet. So it's not 'whole' again?!
@TheWabiSabi the departure of a subset of the ministers does not constitute a dissolution, any reputable source will still tell you that cabinet Schoof is currently in power. The question will be resolved per the criteria stated above.
Reading the resolution criteria again, it's a bit unclear.
You're saying it's the date when the cabinet ceases to be in power, but does that mean when the prime minister submits the resignation to the king or not?
If the prime minister resigns the cabinet, but the cabinet continues in a caretaker capacity (demissionair) until the next election or a new cabinet is formed, it is technically still in power.
So the question resolves to yes the moment it stops being in power, not the moment it becomes a caretaker cabinet?
Presumably, if a new Schoof cabinet is formed, even a temporary minority cabinet like Balkenende III, that would count as the present cabinet ceasing to be in power.
@StephanHeijl can you clarify this, please?
The prime minister has submitted his resignation to the king, the cabinet is now a caretaker cabinet.
But legally speaking, it is still 'in power', it controls the bureaucracy and can technically still propose laws.
I suppose this relates to the 'dissolution' part of the resolution criteria. What does that mean if the cabinet is still there?
@Sqeedee sorry for the late reply, manifold always has like 40 notifications for me. I have clarified the market criteria as it pertains to the current state of the cabinet.