Which of these parties will be the first to suffer "zetelroof" in the House after the Dutch 2023 general election?
12
540Ṁ6042027
20%
PVV
2%
GL-PVDA
4%
VVD
36%
NSC
1.4%
D66
1.9%
BBB
1.4%
CDA
33%
None of the listed parties before the next general election
The Dutch party-list proportional representation system works according to a "vrij mandaat" ("free mandate"). This means that representatives who leave their party after being elected get to keep their seat in parliament. This is sometimes referred to as "zetelroof" ("seat robbery"). It's quite common.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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