This was resolved correctly.

@Paul It was revealed to you in a dream?

The market creator also went all in on YES before mis-resolving.... IMO @Paul deserves the untrustworthy badge.

I think it is unlikely that this was resolved correctly. No source has confirmed >5% FTEs, and since layoffs typically hit HR and sales disproportionately, it seems unlikely to me.

@RyanMoulton Can we still flag improper resolutions? I can’t find the flag on the app.

@NicoDelon I can't see it on the website either

The flag improper resolutions feature was removed (I believe they are reworking it). I've tagged it with the improperly resolved group.

@jack Thanks. FWIW I was betting yes and made profits but I still think there was no reason to call it.

I would guess the author most likely didn't check their resolution criteria and/or the news carefully and resolved too quickly. This is why we need to be able to correct mistaken resolutions:

Will resolve based on official announcements or news article in NYT or WSJ confirming layoffs of 5% or more of engineering.

From what I see neither of these 3 sources specify number of people in engineering affected, just number of people.

do you have a source for this resolution? Yes 6% of all employees were laid off today, but was it >5% of engineering FTEs?

Always buy against coping SWEs

Seems likely they'll just give more employees a low rating and fire them that way instead of doing mass layoffs, that way they can keep pretending to be employee-friendly.

@ShakedKoplewitz That's what FB did, yet still announced it as a layoff.

While this doesn't mean Google will layoff 6%, Google has shifted it's target for low performer ratings from 2% to 6%: https://www.fortune.com/2022/11/23/google-toughening-performance-reviews-employees-fear-layoffs/

Meta reportedly ranked more employees as performers than they typical do before their recent layoff.

Market on an individual FTE https://manifold.markets/MichaelBlume/will-i-be-firedlaid-offlet-go-in-th

(I'm holding YES as a hedge against being an engineering FTE at Google, not because I think the market's underpriced)

@MichaelBlume I recommend hedging in other, more material ways 😉