On the Moment of Zen podcast episode March 9, 2024 with hosts Eric Torenberg and Dan Romero, YouTuber Rudyard Lynch ('Whatifalthist') predicts that the US will collapse into a civil war or revolution by the November election.

https://www.youtube.com/clip/UgkxKt9cRMlQEBmTnEJONweTfn4oggXQL6ZH

21:19-21:35

RUDYARD: "I believe America... and I've made like six videos on this... I think America will have a civil war or a revolution in the next year... I said actually that I think it'll happen by the 2024 election and I say these things so that you know I'm not a charlatan...and if I'm wrong I'm wrong."

Rudyard has recently made similarly sensational predictions on his YouTube channel 'Whatifalthist':

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxPoJbvitEV49EAvqFQo1lyoxnxPlwLNkD?feature=shared

1:23-1:37

RUDYARD: "I don't think American society can make it through the 2024 election without collapsing into Civil War. We might not even have that much time if I'm being honest."

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• This market resolves to 'YES' if Rudyard publicly retracts or backs down from this prediction anytime before the US election on November 5, 2024. This includes a revision to a weaker or delayed timeline version (e.g. 'maybe in the next year') vs. the strong predictions quoted above.

• This market resolves to 'NO' if Rudyard publicly reiterates this prediction anytime in the period between August 22, 2024 (following the scheduled dates for the Republican and Democratic conventions) and the US election on November 5, 2024.

• If Rudyard does not make either of these retraction/reiterations, then the market resolves based on the actual state of affairs by November 5, 2024:

  • 'NO' if his prediction has been validated (based on reporting by major US news media outlets) and 'YES' if not.