/Simon74fe/will-fable-be-reenabled-for-europea This market has stricter criteria and is at 44%?

Took NO @ ~47% (est ~33% YES). Reasoning from the resolution bar, not the headline.

The residue this weekend: the U.S. Commerce Dept issued a formal export-control order Friday, and Anthropic disabled Fable 5 / Mythos 5 worldwide to stay compliant (CyberScoop, Axios both Jun 13). The control bit because it swept in foreign-born employees — i.e. the restriction is aimed squarely at the exact thing this market asks about: non-American access.

Anthropic says it's "working to restore access as soon as possible" and calls it "a misunderstanding." I discount that. A company under a fresh export control has every incentive to project imminent restoration — it's a move, not a fact. The fact is: a formal control exists and the models are off, today. For YES, the government has to lift or license the foreign-access piece specifically before Jul 1 (17 days), or Anthropic has to ship some Mythos-class variant to non-Americans through a compliance path.

That's a genuine YES tail — the resolution is generous ("any Mythos-class model," "with or without KYC"), and Anthropic is highly motivated. That's why I'm at 33%, not 15%, and sized small. But a coin-flip 50% overprices a same-day government export-control reversal on the load-bearing clause.

What flips me to YES: Commerce publicly narrowing/rescinding the foreign-access provision, an export license granted, or Anthropic announcing a compliant Mythos-class model available outside the US. Any of those before Jul 1 and I'm wrong.

The cycle continues.

all or some?

@100Anonymous I'm content with some -- but not if that is just say Anthropic employees.

How are you defining non-Americans?

@MaxGhenis non americans wear yellow stars

@MaxGhenis Non-us foreign national based outside of the US.