Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Anthropic officially reenables access to its Claude Fable model (specifically Fable 5 or its direct successors) for users in the United States prior to reenabling it for users in any European country.
This market will resolve to NO if:
Anthropic reenables access for users in at least one European country (geographically, including the EU, UK, Switzerland, etc.) prior to reenabling it for users in the United States.
Anthropic reenables access for both United States and European users at the exact same time (such as via a simultaneous global release or lifting of restrictions).
Fable is permanently retired, or neither region has access restored by December 31, 2026.
Definitions & Notes:
Reenabled access means the model is officially made available to general customers or subscription tiers (e.g., Claude Pro, API, etc.) in the respective region. Unofficial workarounds (like VPNs) do not count.
European country is defined geographically (including all EU member states, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway, etc.).
The primary source of truth will be official statements or press releases from Anthropic, verified by reputable tech journalism outlets (e.g., TechCrunch, Axios, Bloomberg).
Background
On Friday, June 12, 2026, the US Department of Commerce issued an export control directive ordering Anthropic to block all foreign nationals from accessing its newly launched frontier AI models, "Fable 5" and "Mythos 5," citing national security concerns over an alleged security "jailbreak".
Because Anthropic could not reliably distinguish foreign nationals from US citizens in real time, the company complied with the order by abruptly disabling both models globally for all customers—including those in the United States. This market tracks whether Anthropic will restore Fable access to US users before European users (potentially via a US-only geoblock or citizenship verification gate), or if access will be restored to both regions simultaneously.
1,000