If Altman leaves OpenAI and doesn’t join the board, or the board no longer exists at that time, resolves NO
No option except the first depend on whether Altman is otherwise employed at OpenAI. For example, if he is not employed at OpenAI as a CEO or employee, but is a board member, this market resolves YES.
“The board” refers to the 501(c)(3) non-profit board
I will not bet on this market
Don't buy the options that have already passed, as they cannot resolve YES (unless, admittedly, it is revealed that Sam Altman became a member of the Board and it stayed unannounced for weeks or months)! I cannot resolve them early unfortunately.
1,000
3.00@TheBayesian nothing I am just experimenting a bit with different trading strategies. I think it is unlikely to happen directly for several reasons but it could happen in the future. There is no strong reason why it would happen second half of 2024 rather than later but in either case I get more Mana than I put in the market.
@Soli Note that the other market puts 37% on Altman being on the board by jan 1st 2024. That would resolve both of those NO, and they make up 84% of the total market prob
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