Resolves YES if, by Jan 2025, the monthly investment by the local government of Caerphilly, Wales, into large infrastructure projects aimed at bringing in high income residents to the area (as decided by subjective judgement) is closer to the value invested in Feb 2024 (market creation date, during gentrification) than to that in Feb 2023 (a year before market creation, before gentrification started) i.e. gentrification efforts are still ongoing.
If not, still resolves YES if the local average income has risen by >50% compared to in Feb 2024 i.e. gentrification has been successful.
If neither (not still trying and haven't succeeded), then resolves NO.
@Creagle Haha fair enough, I'll try explaining it clearer.
Someone I know from Caerphilly mentioned their family were placing real-life bets on "how long the gentrification would last". To help give them a statistical edge, I thought I'd make a prediction market on it.
Since these markets require binary resolution criteria, I approximated the vague idea of "how long it lasts" to "by next year, will the local gov still be funding efforts and/or will the successful effects still be present?".
Since the criteria also need to be objective, I guessed at some possible numerical proxies. Assuming local gov financial investment data into big projects (e.g. the container market in a spot known for violence) might be available somewhere, then if next year it's closer to what it is now (allegedly during gentrification) than to how it was a year ago (presumably before the gentrification started), one could say they're still trying to gentrify the area. Similarly, assuming local income data is also available somewhere, then if by next year it's risen >50%, one could say that the intended gentrification effects are still working (though obs it's debatable whether it's a good thing in the first place lol).
If you have better ideas for numerical proxies and can point me to data sources, I would be really grateful if you would share them. Also, if you know the specific local situation well enough, know anything about the track record of UK gentrification attempts in general, have experience in UK development economics etc, but don't have enough spare mana atm to bet the market to your credence, would you mind sharing what your estimate range is? I have no idea if it should be ~1%, ~99%, ~50% etc lol. I'm willing to offer a mana payment if you have any of these :)