Will Wales decide to leave the UK by 2040?
Will Wales decide to leave the UK by 2040?
11
280Ṁ2292040
26%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves “yes” if Wales has left, or is clearly in the process of leaving, the UK by 2040.
Resolves “no” if Wales is still in the UK on 1st January 2040 and isn’t in the process of leaving.
If there is a referendum on independence which ends after Jan 1st 2040 then the deadline will be extended until after that referendum finishes.
Resolves “n/a” if either the UK or Wales ceases to exist (e.g. by being annexed by another country) but not if they simply change their name but otherwise remain functionally the same.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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