There should be a complimentary market. Will manifold hit another record high number....

I think we just need another big contentious news item, lk-99 is a perfect example, these things come and go.

One suggestion I'd make is to use click-bait rage-inducing social media tactics ("Trump is not a dictator, he will almost definitely follow every SCOTUS ruling", "Trumps tactics are working, he will prob get a deal with Russia & Ukraine" "MAGA Doesn't understand economics, they will cause a recession") Really lay it on thick, then make the sign up super easy (it might be already, I haven't signed up in a while) and let it take you straight to that question to bet on

@FergusArgyll I guess becoming a rage bait site could work but might be a repugnant conclusion lol

@TheAllMemeingEye The site doesn't have to change i.e. the questions can still be worded as "Will there be a recession in 2025" but the advertising should make people bet instinctively.

I would also push "sports betting with leaderboards and leagues but without risking money".

The main point I'm trying to make can be summarized thusly; The difference between manifold and metaculus (the only other non-money competitor I know of) is: You have a net worth that goes up and down every day. This leads to more of a gambling/click-baity/fun kind of experience, lean in to it!

Let's be frank, the main way to attract and retain users would be to earn money somehow. For users (or market creators) to earn money Manifold should make money first. How about if we brainstorm how to make Manifold sustainable?

@SimoneRomeo and btw, has Manifold tried to use its data to benchmark and/or train LLMs on future prediction skills? Creating superhuman predictors sounds like the most obvious and priceless revenue source to me

@SimoneRomeo (Copying from my comment in https://manifold.markets/SG/will-manifold-achieve-breakeven-pro#7gzpdz0lwt4):

Relevant poll

Relevant previous market comments

https://manifold.markets/SirSalty/will-our-twitter-impressions-increa

Sir Salty:

Will our Twitter impressions increase significantly if we remove our Gold Checkmark?

We paid $10k to get a gold checkmark which came with $10k in ad credit and a promise of 2x impressions. We sense our impressions have plummeted lately.

Chris Strutheo:

idk if it will go up or down but it is NOT WORTH what youre paying for it

it hurts every day i see it, remove it please, save the money

ClubmasterTransparent:

Better use of $10k would be put some decent content on Instagram. Or any channel that will bring Manifold a new audience.

Me:

$10,000‽ 👀

Hot take 🔥:

It would be vastly more effective and more fun to use the same money to hire a part-time remote-working employee in a low cost-of-living region to make and post good Manifold-related memes to the official Manifold accounts on Xitter, Facebook, Instagram, Threads, Reddit, TikTok, and YouTube

Based on the spikes, seems like we need to lobby for constant U.S. elections.

@EBurk superb idea

Declining raw numbers can be scary, but what's this as a percent of the total addressable market?

@WilliamGunn what does total addressable market mean?

@TheAllMemeingEye Everyone who can realistically be expected to be a retained user (as opposed to things you might put in a pitch to investors, like the size of the sports betting market). Maybe 1000 / week is that number? Is that enough for sustainability? If not, what is?

@WilliamGunn I mean ideally if things were going well there would be linear or even exponential growth, decline is a really bad situation when we're already this small in my opinion

Further down the stats page they do have stats on retention, seemingly both retention and new sign ups need to be vastly boosted for this to survive long term

@TheAllMemeingEye Oh, for sure lack of growth is not a good sign, I'm just wondering what the level of sustainability is, steady-state.

It's surprising that number of active traders is dropping while the number of active users is staying consistent-ish. What's up with all the lurkers? Is something off with the stats?

@jcb Simplest explanation that comes to mind is that it takes time for bets to pay off. If you come here with a few thousand mana, you can spend it all before your bets start to pay off and replenish you. That's not a good way to create a habit.

@WilliamGunn but:

• loans mean you don't completely run out of mana (unless you consistently make bad bets / put it all in one market and hit the per-market leverage cap)

• "that's not a good way to create a habit" doesn't explain why apparently 90% of site users in a day aren't making trades

@jcb It does if loans aren't well-understood. Agree 90% seems high.

@jcb Open in the morning, look for mispriced market, don't find one, repeat

@jcb I have been using manifold for almost 2 years and I have no idea how loans work. Even just the word "loan" sounds like a bad idea that I should stay as far as possible from 😂😂

@SimoneRomeo You can go read about how loans work, but @jcb I don't think liquidity is the fundamental issue, it's habit formation. It's hard to form a habit without rapid feedback loops that provide reinforcement of a behavior. Same kinda thing with question creation: Someone says they don't find enough questions they want to bet on and the response is to have a subsidized question creator program, which does get more questions but also means that for any question the average user might want to ask, there are already a few low-effort versions of it out there, so the question creation habit doesn't get formed.

Essentially, they're addressing symptoms, not the underlying cause, which I would suggest is habit formation, and I would further suggest that more rapid feedback loops would go a long way towards improving this.

The basic interaction loop, as someone mentioned above, is "open app, scan for mispriced markets, bet, wait". The core insight here is that people don't bet on questions they care about, they bet on mispriced questions they care about.

The market movement notifications address this somewhat.

@SimoneRomeo My mental model is that it makes sense to take on loans when you find more good trading opportunities than you have balance to trade in, it basically saves time on saving up to invest

@WilliamGunn definitely I could read about loans. The point here is just that maybe the average user that gets into a prediction market for the first time won't do it

@SimoneRomeo fair enough, they could definitely do with having an improved new user tutorial

Guys we need to brainstorm ideas for how to save the site

@TheAllMemeingEye This might be a cool way to check the effectiveness of those ideas:

@TheAllMemeingEye
I think there are two main things to consider:
1. Retention - Personally, I'm reconsidering manifold because I can't donate my mana. I feel like I might as well head over to Kalshi and donate my winnings on my own if I can't do it here. Making markets is still super fun, and I have an active D&D-esque campaign going, so I won't leave anytime soon, but if Manifold causes massive inflation on the value of Mana and doesn't reinstate donations and doesn't address the concerns of longtime users, then I will be less motivated to add money to my account.
2. New Users - My selling points- when I tell friends about Manifold- are the donations, legality, community, excitement, and utility of the platform. The fewer benefits from using the platform, the less likely I am to tell anyone about Manifold. And the folks I do tell will, for example, no longer hear my pitch about donating to GiveWell or GiveDirectly, so the "sell" isn't as powerful.

I'm just a little fish in a big sea, but that's my two cents as of right now.

@TheAllMemeingEye In my experience, many websites that aren't motivated by corporate greed and appealing to the lowest common denominator died in the last few years. I'm afraid I might have to go outside soon.

@crowlsyong I don't think they have money to donate.

@ProjectVictory I used to be able to donate my mana through the charity page and I can no longer do so. So at some point, they did have the money. That's what I thought my mana was- I invested in Mana (this platform) because I thought they had money to donate, plus a few other reasons but the main reason was donations.

@crowlsyong one glimmer of hope is that in the Manifold leadership approval index market ( /strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating ) I remember SG promising me that at some point in the future a charity element will be reintroduced.

This was somewhat backed up by him betting up a market on it made in the following days ( /Robincvgr/will-manifold-implement-some-kind-o-9RnOO5ILNs ).

However, it was also mentioned that it can't involve direct mana donation, so my current guess is that it might be some kind of charity election where mana can be used as votes.

Obviously, this might not ever happen, or it might happen too late to save the platform.

@TheAllMemeingEye No kiddin'! Well I'll keep my eyes peeled for any news on that front. I sure hope the charity program can be turned back on again in some capacity that makes me feel like the money I give to Manifold can be at least partially donated.

Well, direct mana donations are clearly unsustainable, you need an actual infinite money printer to go along with the infinite mana printer that is activity bonuses, registration bonus and loans.