In the year 2100, these will be the top 5 languages
Basic
61
6.9k
2100
32%
English
·
10mo
24%
Modern Standard Arabic
·
10mo
15%
Other
·
10mo
12%
Mandarin Chinese
·
10mo
10%
Hindi
·
10mo
1.9%
Spanish
·
10mo
1.1%
Urdu
·
10mo

Resolved by Wikipedia with weights equal to the total number of speakers

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

I think birthrates and how religion will continue to impact those is easy to underestimate

bought Ṁ50 Other YES

Other still seems undervalued. 75 years to go.

Please help me understand... shouldn't these percentages be resolving to an expected value of 5 instead of 1? Unless I'm missing something this seems like it would be an easy grab of a nice payout, especially with "other" to ensure that the list is collectively exhaustive. Is the catch that we know none of us will live until 2100 for a payout and so it's okay that the numbers are 1/5th of what they should be, as long as they're correctly proportionate to each other while we're all alive and here playing Manifold? Or am I having a complete brain blip here?

@ChrisSnyder the top 5 will resolve to fractions, so they will sum up to 1. All other ones will resolve to 0.

@ArmandodiMatteo Thanks. And now I see “with weights equal to the total # of speakers”. So for the 5 winners it’s not resolving as yes (100%) or no (0%). Makes sense now.

If this market were to resolve according to the current totals, from Ethnologue (2022):

  • 36% English

  • 28% Mandarin Chinese

  • 15% Hindi

  • 14% Spanish

  • 7% French

@AsptheWyvern that seems to be native languages, do we know the numbers for total speakers?

Wikipedia lists it

@Stralor Those percentages are for total speakers. If it was native speakers only, Chinese would be the largest.

@AsptheWyvern ah makes sense!

Needs more options like German, Swahili, Indonesian, Japanese, Farsi, Turkish, Esperanto, and a new constructed language.

@AndyCarnevale in your opinion, should I add the top 30ish or 20ish?

Bengali in number 7 now.