I think people are slightly underestimating the possibility of an drugs/stress-induced breakdown rampage for Elon relative to the politicians lol

@TheAllMemeingEye Maybe, but just based on base rates, anything above 1% is IMHO absurdly high for everyone except armed conflicts and organized crime. So even if Elon should be higher than others, he certainly should have much lower probability than he has now.

@MartinModrak personally, based on his high stress position, rumours of drug abuse, past manic episodes, extreme narcissism, disregard for human life, defacto legal immunity due to insanely vast wealth, and potential autocratic control over space colonies, my guess is roughly 5-10%, and 1% for the more stable world leaders

@TheAllMemeingEye I would very much like to see your list of world leaders who personally killed somebody during or after their tenure as leaders....

@MartinModrak it's also worth noting that unlike many people I think there is a significant chance of civilisation falling into extreme chaos and/or tyranny in the next couple decades due to climate change and disruptive technologies, in which case I imagine constant political instability and violence (resembling Ancient Rome and modern Sub-Saharan Africa) have a decent chance of becoming ubiquitous

You might want to enforce some lower limit of notability of that person (e.g. had a Wiki page on market creation). Otherwise I might be adding a bunch of random soldiers serving on the frontlines of an ongoing conflict.

@MartinModrak hmmm, I kinda feel like at least one soldier adds value to the market, but I'd be concerned about whether less notable people are actually real, and more than a handful of people in extremely similar circumstances would just get spammy without adding new info.

How about this:

If someone doesn't have a Wikipedia page, you must write a comment proving that they are real and justifying their distinctness from other options.

Then I will decide whether to allow or N/A based on my subjective judgement of these factors.

@TheAllMemeingEye Here's some proof for Darwin (he actually also had another mention in mainstream press ~year ago, so there's some hope we might get confirmed kills later on) https://scrippsnews.com/stories/ace-ukrainian-fpv-drone-pilot-darwin-shows-war-s-explosive-evolution/

@MartinModrak Ok, yeah, this seems legit, so I'll keep that option on the market :)

@TheAllMemeingEye Just to be clear, is personally controlling an explosive FPV drone (or any other missile/munition) with the intent to hit a target and kill "direct" enough for the purpose of the market?

@MartinModrak Yeah I'd count it, it's not like he's just pressing the "go find and kill the enemy" button then letting it fly off and do it on its own, he's actually remote controlling it right?

Does it count if they already have?

@Joshua only kills after market creation count (so not Putin's KGB kills if there were any), adding someone after they already just killed someone or died without ever killing someone would be N/A