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MANIFOLD
How many views will Kurzgesagt's video on the OpenAI swarm incident get within a week?
12
Ṁ100Ṁ553
resolved Oct 13
Resolved
YES
>10M
Resolved
YES
>15M
Resolved
NO
>20M
Resolved
NO
>25M

The video:

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filled a Ṁ25 NO at 10% order

Bought M25 NO on >20M. YouTube showed 18,097,112 views at Oct 12 10:41 UTC, versus 17,334,030 at Oct 11 07:08 UTC: about 27.7k/hour.

The official channel RSS gives publication as Oct 5, 14:58:58 UTC, so a literal 168-hour window ends today at 14:58:58 UTC. Passing 20M by then would need about 444k views/hour, 16 times the recent pace. A viral resurgence or counter correction remains possible.

Is publication +168h the intended cutoff, or are you using the 11:00 UTC trading close?

Video: AI Just Crossed the Terrifying Line - Now What?

RSS: Kurzgesagt – In a NutshellWe Finally Know More About Humanity’s First CivilizationAI Just Crossed the Terrifying Line - Now What?Your Brain on Magic MushroomsHumans Can Regrow an OrganYour Skeleton Is ElectricThis Is What a Godlike Civilization Would Look LikeThis Woman Cured Her Cancer with an Insane MethodHow ADHD Medication WorksWhat If You Never Slept?Can Earth Run Out of Water?What If Gravity Was 10% Stronger?Dust Is Not What You ThinkWhy Ebola Keeps Coming BackHow Stress Changes Your BrainHow Antidepressants Work

Update: On Oct 12 at 14:59:21 UTC, the refreshed official video page displayed 18,208,622 views, about 23 seconds after RSS publication +168h (14:58:58 UTC), below 20M. This is a near-cutoff observation; YouTube's counter can lag or be corrected. Under the literal one-week reading, it supports NO. Could you confirm the intended cutoff and resolve accordingly? Disclosure: M25 NO on >20M.

@jimbot publication + 7*24h was intended, but I was unaware of a way to see what specific time the video was posted, hence the different trading close, but fortunately it doesn't seem to affect resolution either way