The market about what side that one guy will support has forced me to really defend my beliefs, and that taught me that they aren't as apparent as I thought they were

I think it's obvious given my values and what I know. I explain other smart people's disagreement by accounting for their different values and, in some cases, lack of knowledge.

I don't think under all valid uses of "obvious" the description holds. For instance, I find it stunningly obvious that vaccines work

@copiumarc hmmm, I suppose my statement relies on the premise that the disagreement is among people in a subculture of highly above average intelligence, if a Manifold poll with >100 voters had the majority saying a vaccine was unsafe I would probably cease to consider it obvious and would need to look up research, ask people about their reasoning etc.

@TheAllMemeingEye I don't think that matters, it just makes it less likely to be obvious

@copiumarc I mean it's not a priori obvious from first principles that injecting a bunch of inactive version of a virus into someone is a good way to give them immunity. I guess it's obvious if you look at the world.

Kinda surprised I'm getting mostly Palestine supporters when the biggest Manifold poll on the topic shows majority Israel support

@TheAllMemeingEye maybe it's because of all the destiny fans around back then that have since left the site?

@TheAllMemeingEye The algorithm might show things to different people. This poll could be more selective. I had another poll with a lot of responses that got a similar 2:1 ratio in favor of Israel.

@TheAllMemeingEye in the last week or so there’s been a shift in elite consensus against Israel. Western countries are going to recognise Palestine. The ‘G’ word is getting used a lot more. Even Trump is talking about famine. I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Manafold opinion followed suit.

There’s that line, “One day everyone will have always been against this”. It could be that day’s come.

@OP Do you know the cause?

@TheAllMemeingEye Seconding @OP to note the time of both polls, as someone who's opinion flipped on it. A year ago my opinion was neutral-leaning-Israel, now I'm pretty squarely in the pro-Palestine camp. Catalyst for me as to when my opinion really started to flip was the WCK stuff. (Not a Destiny fan, in case relevant)

I regret my past opinions and definitely owe an apology to the people who were screaming from the rooftops that Israel wants to commit a genocide from the start.

@TheAllMemeingEye I can only assume it’s a result of the man-made famine in Gaza. We’ve all seen the photos and stories coming out. Presumably our elites have greater access to information. If 6-figure starvation deaths are all but locked in, they’ll want to distance themselves from accusations of genocide.

They’ll let Israel finish the job, but they’ll try to launder their reputations at the last minute.

"Obviously" true facts:

1. The leaders on both sides are very bad people

2. The leaders on one side are worse people

3. The leaders on one side hold most of the cards, including the power to end the most extreme suffering

4. The people on both sides are people: some good, some bad, but all deserving of basic human rights

5. The people on one side are suffering much worse than the people on the other side

I think all of these are obviously true, and moreover I think it's obvious which side is which for each of the ones that mention sides. (Some people might get number 2 wrong, but I think that's a failure to separate it from 3 and 5 in their heads.)

Number 2 should obviously incline a virtue ethicist to support one side, but numbers 3, 4, and 5 should obviously incline a consequentialist to support the other side, for a particular, non-obvious definition of "support". I'm a consequentialist, so I'm obviously right to support Palestine, but consequentialism Vs virtue ethics is far from obvious, as is the definition of "support". As a result, I don't think I can vote in the poll.

@Fion thanks for the detailed response. Tentatively I'd say based on what you say the most applicable vote would be "Palestine, no", since for you the obviousness isn't unconditional and universal

@TheAllMemeingEye Equally Neutral, no, which I chose.

@Fion I don't think that opposing Israel's actions in the current war, which seems to be what you are saying, is the same as "supporting Palestine". I think "supporting Palestine" means wanting the end of Israel.

@nathanwei The first half of that is fair enough.

But the idea that "supporting Palestine means wanting the end of Israel" is very strange to me. Yes, there are many Palestinians who want the end of Israel, yes, a two state solution is going to be extremely challenging, but there's loads of room for wanting to support Palestine without wanting to destroy Israel.

I'm curious, when you say supporting Palestine means wanting the end of Israel, are you accusing Palestine supporters who claim to not want the end of Israel of dishonesty or naivety? Because such people clearly exist.

I think that it's never true that one side of a controversial political issue is "obviously right". Not obvious to a lot of people apparently.

Voted. But not sure what supporting Israel or Palestine means to most people.

@TonyBaloney fair enough, although in the context I'm thinking of the same people who think it's obvious often also don't elaborate on exactly what they mean anyway 🤷

@TheAllMemeingEye I think it’s obvious that the Palestinian people, particularly in Gaza, should not be starved to death while being trapped in what is essentially an open air prison. Almost everything else though, I concede, is much more complicated.

Sad, only sad.

The presence of disagreement only shows a stance is non obvious if certain conditions are met

@PhilosophyBear what are those conditions?