Will we learn that a city had >10k residents and existed before 7400 BC, by 2034? | Manifold

Will we learn that a city had >10k residents and existed before 7400 BC, by 2034?

Will we learn that a city had >10k residents and existed before 7400 BC, by 2034?

7

110Ṁ73

2033

39%

chance

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Robin Hanson on Twitter:

Wikipedia says: "The earliest known city is Çatalhöyük, a settlement of some 10,000 people in southern Anatolia that existed from approximately 7400 BCE to 5200 BCE." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_cities What is the chance we will learn that some other city had >10K residents <7400BCE?

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What happens if there is genuine controversy as to the population of some newly discovered city and the controversy spans the 10k range? Like if some archaeologists thought there were 5,000 people somewhere and others think it may have been up to 20,000?

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