Will we learn that a city had >10k residents and existed before 7400 BC, by 2034?
7
110Ṁ73
2033
39%
chance

Robin Hanson on Twitter:

Wikipedia says: "The earliest known city is Çatalhöyük, a settlement of some 10,000 people in southern Anatolia that existed from approximately 7400 BCE to 5200 BCE." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_cities What is the chance we will learn that some other city had >10K residents <7400BCE?

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