Will we learn that a city had >10k residents and existed before 7400 BC, by 2034? | Manifold

Will we learn that a city had >10k residents and existed before 7400 BC, by 2034?

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48

Ṁ43

Ṁ110

2033

51%

chance

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Robin Hanson on Twitter:

Wikipedia says: "The earliest known city is Çatalhöyük, a settlement of some 10,000 people in southern Anatolia that existed from approximately 7400 BCE to 5200 BCE." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_cities What is the chance we will learn that some other city had >10K residents <7400BCE?

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What happens if there is genuine controversy as to the population of some newly discovered city and the controversy spans the 10k range? Like if some archaeologists thought there were 5,000 people somewhere and others think it may have been up to 20,000?

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History questions

Was Amelia Earheart's plane just discovered in the Pacific?

Is Jeanne Calment's longevity record of 122 years and 164 days accurate?

Related questions

Will Detroit have a higher population in 2030 than 2020?

Will New York City's population be at least as high in 2030 as it was in 2020?

Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?

Will the population of Lahaina, Hawaii, exceed 10,000 in the 2030 census?

Will any seastead have a population of at least 100 permanent residents before 2030?

Will there be an arcology (self-sufficient habitat) constructed with capacity for 10,000+ residents by 2040?

Will planet 9 be discovered before 2030?

Will Houston have a greater population than Chicago before 2030? (cities, not metro areas)

Will there over 9000 Cumming residents by 2030?

Will we have a floating city before 2050?