Condition

This market is conditional on the first Prime Minister following the next UK general election being from the Reform UK. The condition follows the same criteria as this PM-party market. If a hung parliament leads to no government forming (including no minority government) and a further snap election, use the PM following that subsequent election instead.

If the qualifying PM is not from the Reform UK, this entire market resolves N/A (CANCEL). If the reference market resolves N/A, this market also resolves N/A. The party does not need to remain in office through 2034: the condition is only about the PM following that election.

The measurement year is fixed at 2034, not five years after whichever date the election actually takes place. This market closes at the end of 2034, with resolution after the relevant 2034 data is published (normally in 2035).

Resolution

Use the United Kingdom country-year observation for 2034 in the first official V-Dem dataset release containing that year. Use Regimes of the World (v2x_regime), not the Liberal Democracy Index, Electoral Democracy Index, or an uncertainty/ambiguous classification variant.

Official data and codebooks: https://www.v-dem.net/data/the-v-dem-dataset/

The four outcomes correspond to:

• 0: Closed autocracy

• 1: Electoral autocracy

• 2: Electoral democracy

• 3: Liberal democracy

Resolve to the single category assigned in that first release; later retrospective revisions do not change resolution. If the indicator is renamed but retains exactly the same four-category meaning, use its official successor. If there is no UK classification for 2034, or a methodology change makes the four-way mapping ambiguous, resolve N/A rather than substitute another index or year. Publication delays alone are not grounds for N/A.