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MANIFOLD
How will the United Kingdom be classed by Regimes of the World in 2026?
14
Ṁ100Ṁ2.5k
2027
15%
Liberal democracy
85%
Electoral democracy
0.1%
Electoral autocracy
0.1%
Closed autocracy

Resolves at the classification of the UK according to the Regimes of the World data, up to now published by V-DEM, in 2026.

  • Update 2025-10-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve according to the Regimes of the World classification system, which uses the following categories:

    • Closed autocracy

    • Electoral autocracy

    • Electoral democracy

    • Liberal democracy

  • Update 2026-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 2026 V-Dem report contains data for 2025, not 2026. The market will resolve based on data that reflects the classification for the correct year, and the description will be updated to clarify this.

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@FlorisvanDoorn the 2026 report gives the v-dem data for 2025, I'll clarify this in the description

@Tetraspace The description says "published in 2026", with an end date in 2026. It seems unreasonable to read that as a 2027 report with 2026 data.

Those are 4 of an infinite diversity of options.

@AlanTennant Regimes of the World flattens that diversity somewhat

@Tetraspace I'm guessing the US will be demoted a category next year as well.

@AlanTennant 😔 Indeed, demoted to electoral democracy for 2025

Non-representative "democracy", it's ridiculous, but we're hardly the only country to be operating under exactly that contradiction.