Condition

This market is conditional on the first Prime Minister following the next UK general election being from the Labour Party. The condition follows the same criteria as this PM-party market. If a hung parliament leads to no government forming (including no minority government) and a further snap election, use the PM following that subsequent election instead.

If the qualifying PM is not from the Labour Party, this entire market resolves N/A (CANCEL). If the reference market resolves N/A, this market also resolves N/A. The party does not need to remain in office through 2034: the condition is only about the PM following that election.

The measurement year is fixed at 2034, not five years after whichever date the election actually takes place. This market closes at the end of 2034, with resolution after the relevant 2034 data is published (normally in 2035).

Resolution

Use the United Kingdom's overall score (0–10) in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index 2034, not its rank, regime category, component scores, or the report for 2035. Source: the EIU report/data, available via https://www.eiu.com/ . A faithful reproduction of the EIU table may be used if the original is paywalled.

Use the score as first published for 2034; later retrospective revisions do not change resolution. Resolve to the single numeric bucket containing that published score, without rounding it to an integer. Buckets include their lower bound and exclude their upper bound, except the last bucket includes 10. Thus 8.00 belongs to 8–<9 and 10.00 belongs to 9–10.

This uses Manifold's current bucketed numeric-market format. If the index is discontinued, the UK has no reported score for 2034, or the official scale changes so there is no unambiguous 0–10 overall score, resolve N/A rather than substitute another index or year. Publication delays alone are not grounds for N/A.