What will the most cost-effective charity on Givewell's spreadsheet at the end of 2022 do?
Basic
8
Ṁ148
resolved Apr 6
ResolvedN/A
0.6%Other
15%
Malaria chemoprevention
13%
Bednets
0.0%
Cash transfers
3%
Unconditional cash transfers
7%
Conditional cash transfers for vaccination
9%
Deworming
53%
Vitamin A supplementiation
0.6%
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I will take the sum of the "Cost-effectiveness in multiples of cash transfers, after accounting for leverage/funging" values, weighted by the "Percentage of funding to be allocated to each country with marginal donations", for each charity on Givewell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet, and resolve at the intervention that the highest-scoring charity by this metric is performing. If these fields do not exist, I will resolve ambiguously. An example of this resolution procedure for the 2021 spreadsheet is here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/#comment-77043. This would have resolved "Vitamin A supplementation" for 2021 and 2020, and "Deworming" for 2019, 2018 and 2017.
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Resolved N/A because the fields no longer exist; they were removed in the March 31st update to the spreadsheet. https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2022

Deworming was the top intervention before 2020 (and there are more deworming charities evaluated so there are more chances for one to be outlier-good) so I'm putting some more M$ in this pot.
Malaria chemoprevention is atypically good specifically on saving lives, so if Givewell changes their moral weights it might come out ahead.
Matching the probablity of the other market: https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-the-most-costeffective-charity

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