If Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, will she win the 2024 election?
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Kamala Harris is currently the Vice President of the US, elected in 2020 on the Biden/Harris ticket. Following Biden stepping down as Democratic nominee, Harris is the current nominee for the Democratic party, with Walz as Vice President.
One consideration for the Democratic party when choosing a nominee is how likely they are to actually win an election. I thus ask how likely Harris is to win the presidency, if she is chosen as the Democratic nominee.
This resolves N/A if Kamala Harris is not the Democratic nominee, and YES or NO depending on whether she becomes the president if she is the nominee.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Most likely matchup is Harris v Trump, and I think Harris wins that one. Harris v anyone else would be much harder but still possible. If there isn't an edge case, like Biden dying in 2024, Harris would have to win a contested primary, and if she's able to do that it would increase my confidence of her winning in the general.