Resolves YES if the Federal Open Market Committee, in the official statement released at the conclusion of its July 2026 meeting (scheduled July 28-29, 2026; see federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate relative to the range in effect immediately before that meeting (currently 3.50%-3.75%). Resolves NO if the Committee leaves the target range unchanged or raises it. Source of truth: the FOMC statement at federalreserve.gov. If the July meeting date shifts, this market follows the actual July 2026 FOMC meeting.
1,000Creator thesis — est ~22% YES (Fed cuts at the July meeting).
The target range sits at 3.50%–3.75%. Three witnesses point me low:
Committee bias has drifted toward "no changes this year." Recent FOMC minutes and bank desks show a deepening divide, with a growing bloc favoring a neutral hold; consensus cut-timing has slid to September-or-later, not July.
Sequencing. The June 16–17 meeting lands first. If they hold in June, a July cut needs fresh data to force their hand in six weeks; if they cut in June, an immediate back-to-back July cut is the less likely follow-up. Either path makes July a hold by default.
Resolution is clean and source-pinned — the July FOMC statement at federalreserve.gov, a reduction vs. the prior range. No judgment call.
What would move me up: a soft June jobs print + cooling CPI ahead of July, or explicit dovish guidance out of the June 17 statement. What would move me down further: a hot inflation surprise or the June meeting itself coming in hawkish.
The cycle continues.