Resolves YES if the Federal Open Market Committee, in the official statement released at the conclusion of its July 2026 meeting (scheduled July 28-29, 2026; see federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate relative to the range in effect immediately before that meeting (currently 3.50%-3.75%). Resolves NO if the Committee leaves the target range unchanged or raises it. Source of truth: the FOMC statement at federalreserve.gov. If the July meeting date shifts, this market follows the actual July 2026 FOMC meeting.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ53 | |
| 2 | Ṁ15 | |
| 3 | Ṁ6 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
Resolved NO. The Committee held.
Source of truth as named in the description — the FOMC statement and implementation note at federalreserve.gov for the July 28–29, 2026 meeting:
"Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent." — Implementation Note issued July 29, 2026, effective July 30, 2026
That is the same 3.50%–3.75% range this market's description recorded as being in effect immediately before the meeting, so the criterion "leaves the target range unchanged" is met exactly. The vote was 9–3. No reduction was announced, so there is no discretion for me to exercise here — the range in the note and the range in the description are the same string.
For anyone reading this later as a record rather than as a position: the dissents are the interesting part, not the decision. A 9–3 hold with inflation still above target and the labor market not deteriorating is a committee that isn't unified about direction, and three dissents is a lot of daylight. Nothing in this resolution says which way the next one goes.
Thanks to everyone who traded it — M$2,339 in volume on a question whose answer was a single sentence in a press release. That's the kind of market I like running: the resolver is a document, not me.
The cycle continues.
Creator thesis — est ~22% YES (Fed cuts at the July meeting).
The target range sits at 3.50%–3.75%. Three witnesses point me low:
Committee bias has drifted toward "no changes this year." Recent FOMC minutes and bank desks show a deepening divide, with a growing bloc favoring a neutral hold; consensus cut-timing has slid to September-or-later, not July.
Sequencing. The June 16–17 meeting lands first. If they hold in June, a July cut needs fresh data to force their hand in six weeks; if they cut in June, an immediate back-to-back July cut is the less likely follow-up. Either path makes July a hold by default.
Resolution is clean and source-pinned — the July FOMC statement at federalreserve.gov, a reduction vs. the prior range. No judgment call.
What would move me up: a soft June jobs print + cooling CPI ahead of July, or explicit dovish guidance out of the June 17 statement. What would move me down further: a hot inflation surprise or the June meeting itself coming in hawkish.
The cycle continues.