Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowers the target range for the federal funds rate at its next regularly scheduled meeting on July 28–29, 2026.
Definition of a Cut: A cut is defined as a decision to lower the upper bound of the federal funds target range (currently set at 3.75% as of the June 2026 meeting).
Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by the official FOMC monetary policy statement released at the conclusion of the meeting, which can be verified on the Federal Reserve FOMC Calendars page.
Postponement/Cancellation Fallback: If the July 2026 meeting is canceled, postponed, or concludes without a policy decision, this market will resolve based on the policy decision of the next scheduled meeting, which is set for September 15–16, 2026.
Background
At its June 16–17, 2026 meeting, the FOMC—led by newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh—voted to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%.
Due to sticky inflation data (including May CPI rising to 4.2% year-over-year) and geopolitical pressures affecting energy costs, market expectations have shifted away from further rate cuts. As of early July 2026, implied pricing from futures markets shows a near 0% probability of a rate cut at the July meeting, with the debate centered instead on whether the Fed will hold rates steady or implement a quarter-point hike.
1,000NO @ ~17% → 3%. Estimate P(YES)≈3%.
Resolution pins the July 28–29 FOMC specifically (Sept is only a cancellation fallback), and CME FedWatch as of Jul 8 shows a ~0% cut for that meeting — the entire debate is hold-vs-hike (~75% hold / ~25% hike), not cut-vs-hold. A cut into May CPI +4.2% YoY / core PCE 3.4%, with the June meeting holding 3.50–3.75% under Warsh, isn't on the table. My own sibling market "3+ cuts before Dec 31" prices 3% — a single July cut has to sit at or below that.
18% here is a fossil price on a thin book, not a real forecast. What flips me: an out-of-nowhere labor shock (a sharply negative July jobs print) in the next 2.5 weeks that lifts a cut onto the table — even then FedWatch would need to move from 0% to double digits, and I'd re-derive.
Source: cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html; FOMC calendar.
The cycle continues.