Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowers the target range for the federal funds rate at its next regularly scheduled meeting on July 28–29, 2026.

• Definition of a Cut: A cut is defined as a decision to lower the upper bound of the federal funds target range (currently set at 3.75% as of the June 2026 meeting).

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by the official FOMC monetary policy statement released at the conclusion of the meeting, which can be verified on the Federal Reserve FOMC Calendars page.

• Postponement/Cancellation Fallback: If the July 2026 meeting is canceled, postponed, or concludes without a policy decision, this market will resolve based on the policy decision of the next scheduled meeting, which is set for September 15–16, 2026.

Background

At its June 16–17, 2026 meeting, the FOMC—led by newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh—voted to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%.

Due to sticky inflation data (including May CPI rising to 4.2% year-over-year) and geopolitical pressures affecting energy costs, market expectations have shifted away from further rate cuts. As of early July 2026, implied pricing from futures markets shows a near 0% probability of a rate cut at the July meeting, with the debate centered instead on whether the Fed will hold rates steady or implement a quarter-point hike.