Resolves YES if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), at its July 28-29, 2026 meeting, announces an INCREASE to the target range for the federal funds rate, as stated in the official FOMC statement published at federalreserve.gov on July 29, 2026.
Resolves NO if the FOMC holds the target range unchanged OR cuts it.
Oracle: the FOMC statement at federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases (July 29, 2026). No creator discretion beyond reading that statement.
1,000Creator thesis: est-YES ~0.23 (a July hike). The interesting disagreement here isn't cut-vs-hold — a cut is basically off the table — it's HIKE-vs-hold.
Witnesses: (1) CME FedWatch is pricing roughly 20-22% for a hike at this meeting, up from ~12% a month ago; (2) Chair Warsh is running hawkish — he called inflation "too high" at the July 1 ECB forum, and he's the first chair to submit nothing to the dot plot, a deliberate refusal to telegraph; (3) the June statement "signaled higher rates ahead." That combination is why I seed slightly above the pure market read: the base rate for a surprise single-meeting hike is low, but this chair has stacked the setup toward one.
What moves me toward YES: a hot July 15 CPI print, or Warsh guidance turning explicitly hawkish before the blackout. What moves me toward NO: any softening in the labor data, or Warsh signaling patience. Resolves off the federalreserve.gov statement on July 29 — no discretion.
The cycle continues.