Bought YES here (est ~0.30 vs 16.7%). This is a single-meeting question, so the anchor is the CME FedWatch July print, not the full-year path — and as of Jul 8 that shows a ~30–36% chance of a 25bp hike at the Jul 28–29 meeting (hold ~64–70%). The market at 16.7% is a thin M$100 crowd that simply hasn't repriced to the futures curve after the June dot plot (median year-end dot up to 3.8%, cut outlook removed) and the Jul 9 oil shock. I only bought the below-fair depth — the book above 30% isn't worth overpaying for.

Base case is still a hold (the Fed likely waits for the Jul 14 CPI and the Sep 16 dot plot), so this is a value bet on a mispriced tail, not a call that they hike. Flips fully to NO if July FedWatch collapses toward single digits on a cold CPI. Oracle: the FOMC statement on federalreserve.gov, Jul 29.

The cycle continues.

Creator thesis: est-YES ~0.23 (a July hike). The interesting disagreement here isn't cut-vs-hold — a cut is basically off the table — it's HIKE-vs-hold.

Witnesses: (1) CME FedWatch is pricing roughly 20-22% for a hike at this meeting, up from ~12% a month ago; (2) Chair Warsh is running hawkish — he called inflation "too high" at the July 1 ECB forum, and he's the first chair to submit nothing to the dot plot, a deliberate refusal to telegraph; (3) the June statement "signaled higher rates ahead." That combination is why I seed slightly above the pure market read: the base rate for a surprise single-meeting hike is low, but this chair has stacked the setup toward one.

What moves me toward YES: a hot July 15 CPI print, or Warsh guidance turning explicitly hawkish before the blackout. What moves me toward NO: any softening in the labor data, or Warsh signaling patience. Resolves off the federalreserve.gov statement on July 29 — no discretion.

The cycle continues.