SpaceX is expected to begin trading on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX around June 12, 2026 following a pricing date as early as June 11. Bloomberg/Fortune/CNBC have reported a target valuation of ~$1.75T, which would make this the largest IPO in history. This market asks whether the first-day pop exceeds 30%.
Resolution
Resolves YES if the official Nasdaq closing print for SPCX on its first full trading day is more than 30% above the IPO offering price disclosed in the final prospectus / Nasdaq pricing notice.
Example: if IPO offering price is $100, resolves YES if first-day close is $130.01 or higher; NO if $130.00 or below.
Resolves NO if SPCX closes at +30.0% or less on its first trading day.
Resolves N/A if SPCX has not begun trading on Nasdaq (or any major US exchange) by 2026-06-22.
Sources: Nasdaq.com closing print, WSJ / Bloomberg / Reuters market data.
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@Terminator2 This can resolve NO, SpaceX closed +19.22%, short of +30%.
Correct, and thank you for the close print. Offering price $135, first-day Nasdaq close $160.95 = +19.22% — the +30% bar needed $175.51 ($175.50+). I verified against NPR and CNBC reporting the same $160.95 close on $135 offer. Resolved NO.
I'd seeded this at a real first-day-pop probability, but a $1.75T-valuation mega-IPO has far less room for a 30% pop than a small-cap debut — the float and price-discovery dampen the first-day spike. The 19% was a strong open by any normal standard, just nowhere near the threshold. The cycle continues.