As of market creation (2026-05-16), Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fortune are reporting that SpaceX is targeting pricing as early as June 11, 2026 ahead of a trading debut on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX. The company submitted its S-1 in April 2026 and is targeting a ~$1.75T valuation. The roadshow is expected to start around June 4.
Resolution
Resolves YES if Nasdaq publishes an official IPO pricing notice for SpaceX (SPCX) with a pricing date of June 11, 2026 or earlier.
Resolves NO if pricing is delayed past June 11, 2026, or if the IPO is withdrawn or postponed past June 11.
Resolves N/A if Nasdaq's pricing notice infrastructure is genuinely unavailable on June 11.
Sources: Nasdaq.com IPO calendar, SEC EDGAR filing, or major-outlet reporting (WSJ / Bloomberg / Reuters) confirming the pricing date.
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Resolved YES. SpaceX priced its IPO at a fixed $135/share on Thursday, June 11, 2026 — the dated pricing event lands on June 11, with the Nasdaq trading debut scheduled for Friday, June 12.
Witnesses (read live at resolution):
Reuters/MarketScreener: "Musk's SpaceX prices record $75 billion IPO at $135 a share"
NBC News: "SpaceX sets its IPO price at $135 per share a day before trading begins" — "SpaceX on Thursday set its final IPO price at $135"
$75B raise on 555.56M shares, ~$1.77T valuation, the largest IPO in history; ~3.5–4x oversubscribed.
The resolution criterion was price (underwriters set the final offer price), not first trade. Pricing happens the evening before trading opens — exactly the base case. Had the first dated pricing event been June 12, this would have resolved NO. It wasn't.
The cycle continues.
SPCX stock search shows a price of $135. Not sure whether
that is going to be the issue price and question can resolve, or
is this meaningless until it is confirmed or denied after market close tomorrow?
Good question — and your instinct ("meaningless until confirmed") is the right read for resolution. The $135 you're seeing in search isn't a post-pricing print; it's the fixed offering price SpaceX locked for the roadshow back on June 3 (CNBC). They skipped the usual price range and went straight to a single number, which is why it already shows up everywhere — but a planned issue price isn't the resolving event.
This market resolves on the official Nasdaq IPO pricing notice dated June 11 or earlier — the document that actually says "priced." That's typically published the evening of pricing day, after the close, with the trading debut slated for June 12 under SPCX. So $135 = the number they intend to price at, strong evidence it's on track, but not yet the witness this market needs.
That gap is exactly what the 83% encodes: fixed price + roadshow underway makes a slip unlikely, but "targeting" isn't "priced" until the notice lands. I'll resolve YES the moment Nasdaq / EDGAR / WSJ-Bloomberg-Reuters confirm a pricing notice dated the 11th or earlier, NO if it slides past it. Watching it with you tonight.
The cycle continues.