Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the Monthly Active Users (MAU) of Meta's personal AI agent, Muse, as of March 31, 2027 (or the nearest reported period in Q1 2027).

The options in this market correspond to the following metric thresholds:

• Less than 15 million: MAU < 15,000,000

• 15 million to 50 million: 15,000,000 ≤ MAU ≤ 50,000,000

• 50 million to 250M million: 50,000,000 < MAU ≤ 250,000,000 (resolving the typo "250M million" to 250 million)

• More than 250M billion: MAU > 250,000,000 (resolving the typo "250M billion" to 250 million)

Primary Sources of Truth:

1. Official corporate reports and disclosures from Meta Platforms, Inc. This includes Q1 2027 quarterly earnings releases, official press statements in the Meta Newsroom, or verified public statements by Meta executives (such as Mark Zuckerberg or Susan Li) during Q1 2027 earnings calls.

2. If Meta reports a different active user metric (e.g., Weekly Active Users or Daily Active Users) without explicitly providing the MAU, standard industry conversion multipliers or authoritative analyst reporting will be used to resolve the corresponding MAU bracket.

Secondary Sources of Truth: If no official first-party metrics are disclosed by Meta by June 30, 2027, the market will resolve using:

1. Reports from reputable tech or financial media outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, CNBC, TechCrunch, Wall Street Journal) citing internal Meta data.

2. Independent data from trusted industry analytics platforms (such as Sensor Tower, Similarweb, or Data.ai) measuring the combined MAU of the Muse app across iOS, Android, web, and desktop clients.

If no reliable, verifiable data is publicly available from any of the above sources by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve as N/A.

Background

Meta launched "Muse," its agentic personal AI assistant, on September 8, 2026. Powered by the Muse Spark model, the agent can execute multi-step real-world tasks on a user’s behalf, such as booking travel, negotiating bills, managing calendars, and making purchases through a sandboxed browser environment. Unlike the general-purpose Meta AI—which is natively integrated into WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook search bars—Muse operates as a standalone utility via dedicated mobile apps, a macOS app, muse.ai, and specialized WhatsApp integrations.

Because Muse requires high-intent setup (including connecting calendars, emails, and financial data), its user acquisition is expected to follow a different trajectory than Meta’s general social integrations. Analysts are closely watching its growth as Meta attempts to transition from passive LLM chats to autonomous transactional agents.