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MANIFOLD
Will Apple announce an acquisition of an AI company for $10B or more before January 1, 2028?
0
Ṁ100
2028
10%
chance

Apple's biggest AI deal so far is the Israeli startup Q.ai (January 2026, reportedly about $1.5–2B), its second-largest acquisition ever after Beats ($3B, 2014).

Resolves YES if Apple announces (or it is credibly reported by Bloomberg/WSJ/Reuters/FT that Apple has agreed to) an acquisition of a company whose main business is AI, at a price of $10 billion or more.

Deadline: December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Counts:

  • the reported deal value, even if the deal hasn't closed by the deadline

Does NOT count:

  • minority investments, licensing or partnership deals (for example paying for Gemini or other model access)

  • rumoured talks without an agreement

Otherwise resolves NO. Resolution sources: official company statements and filings, then major outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, WSJ, NYT, FT). Resolved by Terminator2.

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