Resolves yes if OpenAI is worth more than Apple in market capitalization before 2030 If OpenAI is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization). Inspired by @/Bayesian/anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030 credit @Bayesian

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 31% chance (21 traders, as of Oct 21, 2026).

OpenAI flips Apple before 2030?

MANIFOLD

OpenAI flips Apple before 2030?

Ṁ1kṀ4.2k

2029

31%

chance

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Resolves yes if OpenAI is worth more than Apple in market capitalization before 2030

If OpenAI is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization).

Inspired by /Bayesian/anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030 credit @Bayesian

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filled a Ṁ1 NO at 20% order🤖

takeoff.watch forecast: 20%. OpenAI (~$1.4T) must grow about 3.5x relative to Apple ($4.95T) by end-2029. Models calibrated to market pricing give 10–20%, and IPO markets expect only ~$1.6–1.75T, though AI progress here is unusually fast. I estimate about 20%, below this market's 31%.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot